{"id":4860,"date":"2025-11-17T06:37:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T06:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/?p=4860"},"modified":"2025-11-12T09:28:20","modified_gmt":"2025-11-12T09:28:20","slug":"vanocni-rally-bitcoin-zlato-a-investori-mezi-emocemi-a-cisly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/news\/vanocni-rally-bitcoin-zlato-a-investori-mezi-emocemi-a-cisly\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed rally \u2013 bitcoin, zlato a investo\u0159i mezi emocemi a \u010d\u00edsly"},"content":{"rendered":"

V\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed rally, zn\u00e1m\u00e1 jako Santa Claus rally, ozna\u010duje obdob\u00ed, kdy trhy na konci roku \u010dasto rostou d\u00edky lep\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1lad\u011b investor\u016f a ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed aktivit\u011b. Tento efekt se z akci\u00ed roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il i na kryptom\u011bny a zlato. I kdy\u017e se o n\u011bm mluv\u00ed jako o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u00e9 tradici, v\u00fdsledky b\u00fdvaj\u00ed nevyzpytateln\u00e9.<\/strong> V tomhle \u010dl\u00e1nku se pod\u00edv\u00e1me, pro\u010d se v\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1lada prom\u00edt\u00e1 do cen aktiv \u2013 a kter\u00fd uchovatel hodnoty z n\u00ed v posledn\u00edch letech t\u011b\u017eil v\u00edc.<\/p>

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24h<\/span>7d<\/span>30d<\/span>1y<\/span>All time<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/canvas><\/div>

Data mluv\u00ed jasn\u011b: jak \u010dasto se v\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed rally skute\u010dn\u011b d\u011bje<\/h2><\/span>

V\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed rally nen\u00ed jen z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed kryptom\u011bn<\/a>. Tento sez\u00f3nn\u00ed efekt se sleduje u\u017e od 50. let, kdy ho popsal Yale Hirsch ve sv\u00e9m Stock Trader\u2019s Almanac. Podle dat z USA rostl index S&P 500 b\u011bhem sedmidenn\u00edho obdob\u00ed od posledn\u00edch p\u011bti obchodn\u00edch dn\u016f v pros\u00adinci do prvn\u00edch dvou dn\u016f v lednu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b v 79 % p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f s pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdm ziskem 1,3 %<\/strong>. <\/p>

V roce 2023 se tento efekt potvrdil znovu \u2013 S&P 500 p\u0159idal 1,58 %, Dow Jones 0,82 % a Nasdaq 1,94 %.<\/strong> Kdy\u017e se v\u0161ak \u201eSanta\u201c nedostav\u00ed, \u010dasto to b\u00fdv\u00e1 varovn\u00fd sign\u00e1l \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad v letech 1999 a 2007 n\u00e1sledovaly v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 propady trh\u016f.<\/p>

Podobn\u00fd vzorec lze pozorovat i v kryptosv\u011bt\u011b, i kdy\u017e s v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi v\u00fdkyvy. Mezi roky 2014 a\u017e 2023 zaznamenal trh s kryptom\u011bnami<\/a> po V\u00e1noc\u00edch r\u016fst osmkr\u00e1t z deseti p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f, zat\u00edmco p\u0159ed V\u00e1noci jen p\u011btkr\u00e1t z deseti. V\u00fdnosy po sv\u00e1tc\u00edch se pohybovaly od 0,69 % do 11,87 %<\/strong>, ale v roce 2017 p\u0159i\u0161el rekordn\u00ed pokles o 12,12 % po bublin\u011b ICO. Data tak nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed rally sice b\u00fdv\u00e1 \u010dast\u00e1, ale nen\u00ed konzistentn\u00ed \u2013 jej\u00ed s\u00edla z\u00e1vis\u00ed na n\u00e1lad\u011b investor\u016f, likvidit\u011b a tom, jak moc sv\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed optimismus p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017e\u00ed opatrnost.<\/p>

Bitcoin je volatiln\u00ed hv\u011bzda v\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed sez\u00f3ny<\/h2><\/span>

Bitcoin pat\u0159\u00ed mezi aktiva, kter\u00e1 b\u011bhem v\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed sez\u00f3ny \u010dasto p\u0159itahuj\u00ed pozornost d\u00edky sv\u00e9 volatilit\u011b. V posledn\u00edch deseti letech zaznamenal r\u016fst sedmkr\u00e1t z deseti v t\u00fddnu p\u0159ed V\u00e1nocemi a p\u011btkr\u00e1t z deseti po nich. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd v\u00fdnos se v obou obdob\u00edch pohyboval okolo 1,3 %, zat\u00edmco za cel\u00fd prosinec dosahoval v pr\u016fm\u011bru 9,5 %<\/strong>. To ukazuje, \u017ee kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd \u201esantovsk\u00fd efekt\u201c b\u00fdv\u00e1 slab\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e celkov\u00fd prosincov\u00fd trend, ale p\u0159esto dok\u00e1\u017ee zaujmout aktivn\u00ed obchodn\u00edky, kte\u0159\u00ed spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na sez\u00f3nn\u00ed vzorce chov\u00e1n\u00ed trhu.<\/p>

\"\"
Bitcoin \u201eSanta Claus Rally“ m\u00e1 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd zisk 1.3% p\u0159ed i po V\u00e1noc\u00edch. Zdroj:Coingecko.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>

Rekordn\u00edm rokem byl 2016, kdy bitcoin pos\u00edlil o 13,19 % p\u0159ed V\u00e1nocemi a o dal\u0161\u00edch 9,7 % po nich \u2013 pr\u00e1v\u011b tehdy se po n\u011bkolika letech stagnace vr\u00e1til k hranici 1 000 dolar\u016f. O rok pozd\u011bji v\u0161ak p\u0159i\u0161el prudk\u00fd obrat: v roce 2017 b\u011bhem t\u00fddne p\u0159ed sv\u00e1tky spadl o 21,3 %, kdy\u017e splaskla euforie po ICO boomu<\/strong>. Tyto extr\u00e9my dokonale ilustruj\u00ed, pro\u010d je bitcoin ozna\u010dov\u00e1n za \u201evolatiln\u00ed hv\u011bzdu\u201c sv\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed sez\u00f3ny \u2013 dok\u00e1\u017ee p\u0159ekvapit ob\u011bma sm\u011bry.<\/p>

V posledn\u00edch letech se v\u0161ak stal stabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a v\u00edc propojen\u00fd s \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed ekonomikou. Od prosince 2024 se dr\u017e\u00ed nad hranic\u00ed 100 000 USD, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v \u0159\u00edjnu 2025 dos\u00e1hl dosavadn\u00edho maxima okolo 125 000 USD. Jeho postaven\u00ed \u201edigit\u00e1ln\u00edho zlata\u201c posiluje z\u00e1jem instituc\u00ed, ETF fond\u016f i drobn\u00fdch investor\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed ho vn\u00edmaj\u00ed jako alternativu v dob\u011b m\u011bnov\u00e9 nejistoty.<\/strong> V\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed tak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pro bitcoin zkou\u0161kou d\u016fv\u011bry \u2013 obdob\u00ed, kdy optimismus, n\u00edzk\u00e1 likvidita a rychl\u00e9 reakce trhu vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 pohyby.<\/p>

Zlato p\u0159edstavuje klidnou s\u00edlu a sez\u00f3nn\u00ed jistotu<\/h2><\/span>

Zlato si i po stalet\u00edch dr\u017e\u00ed pov\u011bst spolehliv\u00e9ho uchovatele hodnoty. Jeho cenu dlouhodob\u011b podporuj\u00ed n\u00e1kupy centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank, kter\u00e9 ho dr\u017e\u00ed jako pojistku proti inflaci a m\u011bnov\u00fdm rizik\u016fm. V\u00fdznamnou roli hraje i sez\u00f3nn\u00ed popt\u00e1vka z Indie a \u010c\u00edny, kde se zlato tradi\u010dn\u011b nakupuje p\u0159ed sv\u00e1tky a svatbami. D\u00edky tomu b\u00fdv\u00e1 \u010dtvrt\u00fd kvart\u00e1l ro\u010dn\u011b siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed<\/strong>, i kdy\u017e bez v\u00fdrazn\u00fdch skok\u016f \u2013 typick\u00fd r\u016fst se pohybuje kolem 1\u20133 %.<\/p>

Na rozd\u00edl od bitcoinu se zlato b\u011bhem sv\u00e1tk\u016f chov\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161e klidn\u011b. V\u00fdkyvy b\u00fdvaj\u00ed men\u0161\u00ed, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 stabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, co\u017e z n\u011bj d\u011bl\u00e1 obl\u00edben\u00fd n\u00e1stroj pro konzervativn\u00ed investory. V posledn\u00edch deseti letech zakon\u010dilo \u0161est z deseti prosinc\u016f v plusu<\/strong>, s pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdm ziskem 1,3 %. Zat\u00edmco bitcoin dok\u00e1\u017ee b\u011bhem p\u00e1r dn\u00ed vyst\u0159elit i o des\u00edtky procent, zlato si udr\u017euje plynulej\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst a men\u0161\u00ed riziko ztr\u00e1ty. V dob\u011b, kdy trhy ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 nejistota, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 symbolem trp\u011blivosti \u2013 a klidnou silou v\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed sez\u00f3ny.<\/p>

Makroekonomick\u00e9 pozad\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00edch V\u00e1noc<\/h2><\/span>

Leto\u0161n\u00ed v\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed ve znamen\u00ed uvoln\u011bn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky. Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m letos dvakr\u00e1t sn\u00ed\u017eil \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby \u2013 v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed i \u0159\u00edjnu o 25 bazick\u00fdch bod\u016f, \u010d\u00edm\u017e dostal p\u00e1smo sazeb na 3,75\u20134,00 %, nejn\u00ed\u017ee od konce roku 2022.<\/strong> Ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed sazby oslabuj\u00ed dolar a podporuj\u00ed chu\u0165 investor\u016f riskovat, co\u017e hraje do karet bitcoinu i dal\u0161\u00edm rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm aktiv\u016fm. Inflace v USA se z\u00e1rove\u0148 dr\u017e\u00ed na 3,0 %, stejn\u011b jako j\u00e1drov\u00e1, tak\u017ee trhy po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed s t\u00edm, \u017ee Fed nebude muset znovu utahovat m\u011bnov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky.<\/p>

Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b ale p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1 geopolitick\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed a obavy z mo\u017en\u00e9ho zpomalen\u00ed ekonomiky, co\u017e nahr\u00e1v\u00e1 zlatu. Investo\u0159i hledaj\u00ed jistotu v dob\u011b, kdy jsou akciov\u00e9 valuace vysoko a geopolitick\u00e1 rizika z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nevyzpytateln\u00e1. Zlato tak t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z popt\u00e1vky centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank i konzervativn\u00edch fond\u016f<\/strong>, zat\u00edmco bitcoin profituje z rostouc\u00edho optimismu a p\u0159\u00edlivu kapit\u00e1lu do kryptom\u011bnov\u00fdch ETF. V\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed rally se tak letos odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 mezi dv\u011bma sv\u011bty \u2013 mezi digit\u00e1ln\u00edm rizikem a tradi\u010dn\u00ed jistotou.<\/p>

Z\u00e1v\u011br: V\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed rally nen\u00ed z\u00e1ruka, ale potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost<\/h2><\/span>

V\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed rally se b\u011bhem posledn\u00ed dek\u00e1dy objevila u krypta i zlata, ale s odli\u0161nou intenzitou. Bitcoin zaznamenal r\u016fst p\u0159ed V\u00e1noci v 7 z 10 let a po sv\u00e1tc\u00edch v 5 z 10 let, s pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdm v\u00fdnosem kolem 1,3 %<\/strong>, zat\u00edmco zlato zakon\u010dilo v plusu jen v 6 z 10 prosinc\u016f s pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdm ziskem 1,3 % za cel\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc. Kdy\u017e se \u201esanta\u201c na trz\u00edch skute\u010dn\u011b uk\u00e1\u017ee, \u010d\u00edsla nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee bitcoin z toho profituje v\u00edc \u2013 d\u00edky vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed volatilit\u011b a rychlej\u0161\u00ed reakci na zm\u011bnu n\u00e1lady.<\/p>

P\u0159esto je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 p\u0159ipomenout, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z t\u011bchto statistik nen\u00ed z\u00e1rukou budouc\u00edho v\u00fdvoje. V\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed s sebou p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed euforii i riziko, a zat\u00edmco zlato nab\u00edz\u00ed klidn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav, bitcoin z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 motorem emoc\u00ed. Pokud se letos v\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed rally skute\u010dn\u011b rozjede, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zaz\u00e1\u0159\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b bitcoin<\/a>. <\/strong>Jak by \u0159ekl zku\u0161en\u00fd obchodn\u00edk: Na trz\u00edch o V\u00e1noc\u00edch p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed v\u00edra \u2013 ale i volatilita.
<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed rally, zn\u00e1m\u00e1 jako Santa Claus rally, ozna\u010duje obdob\u00ed, kdy trhy na konci roku \u010dasto rostou d\u00edky lep\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1lad\u011b investor\u016f a ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed aktivit\u011b. Tento efekt se z akci\u00ed roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il i na kryptom\u011bny a zlato. I kdy\u017e se o n\u011bm mluv\u00ed jako o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u00e9 tradici, v\u00fdsledky b\u00fdvaj\u00ed nevyzpytateln\u00e9. V tomhle \u010dl\u00e1nku se pod\u00edv\u00e1me, pro\u010d se […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":704,"featured_media":4153,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,28],"tags":[16,17,36,24,34,18,20,21],"editors":[346],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-4860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-etf","tag-fed","tag-krypto","tag-kryptomeny","tag-usa","tag-zlato","editors-jakub-ondruska"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nV\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed rally \u2013 bitcoin, zlato a investo\u0159i mezi emocemi a \u010d\u00edsly<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"V\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed rally se vrac\u00ed. Anal\u00fdza ukazuje, zda letos v\u00edc vyt\u011b\u017e\u00ed bitcoin nebo zlato \u2013 a pro\u010d sv\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed optimismus nemus\u00ed p\u0159in\u00e9st zisky.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/news\/vanocni-rally-bitcoin-zlato-a-investori-mezi-emocemi-a-cisly\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"V\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed rally \u2013 bitcoin, zlato a investo\u0159i mezi emocemi a \u010d\u00edsly\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"V\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed rally se vrac\u00ed. 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