{"id":4100,"date":"2025-10-28T10:33:13","date_gmt":"2025-10-28T10:33:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/?p=4100"},"modified":"2025-10-28T10:33:13","modified_gmt":"2025-10-28T10:33:13","slug":"bitcoin-predikce-hrozi-navrat-pod-hranici-100-000-usd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/news\/bitcoin-predikce-hrozi-navrat-pod-hranici-100-000-usd\/","title":{"rendered":"Hroz\u00ed n\u00e1vrat ceny bitcoinu pod hranici 100 000 USD?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0158\u00edjen b\u00fdv\u00e1 pro bitcoin tradi\u010dn\u011b siln\u00fdm m\u011bs\u00edcem, av\u0161ak rok 2025 ukazuje, \u017ee historick\u00e9 trendy nejsou z\u00e1rukou budouc\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f. Obchodn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou, zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se averze k riziku a celkov\u00e1 \u00fanava trhu zp\u016fsobily, \u017ee BTC v polovin\u011b \u0159\u00edjna ztr\u00e1c\u00ed na hodnot\u011b<\/strong> a investo\u0159i se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed poklesu pod kl\u00ed\u010dovou hladinu 100 000 USD. <\/p>

V \u010dl\u00e1nku se proto zam\u011b\u0159\u00edme na sez\u00f3nnost bitcoinu, aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed makroekonomick\u00e9 tlaky, technick\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b podpory i institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed chov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj ovlivnit. <\/p>

Historick\u00e1 sez\u00f3nnost Bitcoinu a realita \u0159\u00edjna 2025<\/h2><\/span>

\u0158\u00edjen se v kryptotrhu dlouhodob\u011b pova\u017euje za jeden z nej\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, proto\u017ee od roku 2013 p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed podle CoinGlass pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd v\u00fdnos kolem 19,7 %<\/strong>. Pozitivn\u00ed statistika vytvo\u0159ila mezi investory o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho r\u016fstu, kter\u00e1 podpo\u0159il i vznik v\u00fdrazu \u201eUptober\u201c. <\/p>

B\u011bhem posledn\u00edch dvan\u00e1cti let skon\u010dil \u0159\u00edjen v m\u00ednusu pouze t\u0159ikr\u00e1t, co\u017e posilovalo d\u016fv\u011bru v pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto trendu i v roce 2025. Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdvoj ale ukazuje opak, proto\u017ee bitcoin se v \u0159\u00edjnu doposud nach\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 6 % pod \u00farovn\u00ed z po\u010d\u00e1tku m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/strong><\/p>

\"btc
Bitcoin (BTC)<\/div>
<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div>
24h<\/span>7d<\/span>30d<\/span>1y<\/span>All time<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/canvas><\/div>

Podle Illii Otychenka z burzy CEX.io je slab\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdkon v\u00fdsledkem \u00fanavy trhu<\/strong> po dosa\u017een\u00ed nov\u00e9ho historick\u00e9ho maxima a tak\u00e9 rostouc\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 nejistoty. Nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou vedlo ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 averzi v\u016f\u010di rizikov\u00fdm aktiv\u016fm, co\u017e se projevilo v\u00fdprodeji a ochlazen\u00edm sentimentu. <\/p>

Otychenko upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee sez\u00f3nnost p\u0159edstavuje statistick\u00fd ukazatel<\/strong>, nikoli garanci r\u016fstu za v\u0161ech okolnost\u00ed. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 korekce tak m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt sp\u00ed\u0161e kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdm p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00edm pozdn\u00ed f\u00e1ze b\u00fd\u010d\u00edho cyklu ne\u017e za\u010d\u00e1tkem dlouhodob\u00e9ho poklesu.<\/p>

\u00danava trhu a dopady zhor\u0161en\u00fdch geopolitick\u00fdch vztah\u016f<\/h2><\/span>

Po rekordn\u00edch cen\u00e1ch bitcoinu za\u010dala r\u016fstov\u00e1 dynamika postupn\u011b sl\u00e1bnout a technick\u00e9 indik\u00e1tory uk\u00e1zaly zn\u00e1mky medv\u011bd\u00ed divergence<\/strong>. Investo\u0159i po n\u011bkolikam\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm r\u016fstu vyb\u00edrali zisky a trh byl citliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed na negativn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy, co\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159elo podm\u00ednky pro korekci. Sign\u00e1ln\u00ed byl p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm prudk\u00fd pokles 10. \u0159\u00edjna, kter\u00fd doprov\u00e1zela nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed jednor\u00e1zov\u00e1 likvidace p\u00e1\u010den\u00fdch pozic v historii kryptotrhu v objemu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 19 miliard USD.<\/p>

\"Graf
Graf technick\u00fdch indik\u00e1tor\u016f ukazuj\u00edc\u00ed zn\u00e1mky medv\u011bd\u00ed divergence. Zdroj: Tradingview.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>

V\u00fdznamn\u00fdm tlakem na sentiment se staly zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se obchodn\u00ed vztahy mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a \u010c\u00ednou, kter\u00e9 op\u011bt pos\u00edlily glob\u00e1ln\u00ed averzi k rizikov\u00fdm aktiv\u016fm. V okam\u017eic\u00edch geopolitick\u00e9 nervozity se \u010d\u00e1st investor\u016f stahuje k bezpe\u010dn\u011bji vn\u00edman\u00fdm aktiv\u016fm<\/strong>, co\u017e bitcoinu ub\u00edr\u00e1 pot\u0159ebnou likviditu. Analytici se shoduj\u00ed, \u017ee vznikl \u201edokonal\u00fd mix\u201c tr\u017en\u00ed \u00fanavy a extern\u00edch rizik, kter\u00fd zbrzdil dosavadn\u00ed r\u016fstov\u00fd trend.<\/p>

Hladina 100 000 USD jako kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 psychologick\u00e1 bari\u00e9ra<\/h2><\/span>

Bitcoin <\/a>v roce 2025 opakovan\u011b testuje hranici 100 000 USD, kter\u00e1 p\u0159edstavuje z\u00e1sadn\u00ed psychologickou \u00farove\u0148 na trhu. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se pobl\u00ed\u017e t\u00e9to hodnoty nach\u00e1z\u00ed 50t\u00fddenn\u00ed klouzav\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br<\/strong>, jen\u017e historicky fungoval jako d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 podpora. Analytici upozor\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee prora\u017een\u00ed obou \u00farovn\u00ed by mohlo vyvolat siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed prodejn\u00ed reakci. Trh proto pozorn\u011b sleduje, zda se t\u00e9to z\u00f3n\u011b poda\u0159\u00ed odolat dal\u0161\u00edmu tlaku.<\/p>

Otychenko upozornil, \u017ee 50t\u00fddenn\u00ed klouzav\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br fungoval jako kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 podpora nejen v tomto cyklu, ale i v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch r\u016fstov\u00fdch obdob\u00edch. Pokud by bitcoin tuto \u00farove\u0148 jasn\u011b prolomil, mohlo by to podle n\u011bj pos\u00edlit dal\u0161\u00ed medv\u011bd\u00ed momentum<\/strong><\/p>

\"V\u00fdvoj
V\u00fdvoj bitcoinu v\u016f\u010di 50t\u00fddenn\u00edmu SMA. Zdroj: Tradingview.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>

Na predik\u010dn\u00ed platform\u011b Polymarket se v polovin\u011b \u0159\u00edjna objevila zhruba 52% \u0161ance poklesu pod tuto \u00farove\u0148,<\/strong> co\u017e odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed nervozitu investor\u016f. Podle Thomase Chena, CEO spole\u010dnosti Function, je nyn\u00ed bitcoin kv\u016fli vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed anga\u017eovanosti citliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed na makroekonomick\u00e9 \u0161oky. V ETF je dr\u017eeno p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 150 miliard USD, co\u017e v obdob\u00ed \u201erisk-off\u201c tla\u010d\u00ed na likviditu. V\u00fdvoj kolem hranice 100 000 USD tak m\u016f\u017ee z\u00e1sadn\u011b ovlivnit dal\u0161\u00ed sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed trhu.<\/p>

Makroekonomick\u00e9 faktory a institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed pozice jako hlavn\u00ed riziko<\/h2><\/span>

V\u011bt\u0161ina slab\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdkonu bitcoinu v \u0159\u00edjnu 2025 souvis\u00ed s rostouc\u00edmi makroekonomick\u00fdmi obavami a napjatou geopolitickou situac\u00ed. Hrozba eskalace obchodn\u00edho konfliktu mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a \u010c\u00ednou zv\u00fd\u0161ila averzi investor\u016f k riziku<\/strong>. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se na trhu objevuj\u00ed obavy z mo\u017en\u00e9ho zpomalen\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky a \u00fasporn\u00fdch krok\u016f vl\u00e1d. To vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kter\u00e9 kryptu p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nep\u0159eje.<\/p>

Thomas Chen upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee bitcoin je dnes \u00fazce propojen s institucion\u00e1ln\u00edmi toky a chov\u00e1n\u00edm velk\u00fdch investor\u016f. P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 150 miliard USD dr\u017een\u00fdch v ETF zvy\u0161uje citlivost na cokoli,<\/strong> co ovlivn\u00ed likviditu \u010di ochotu riskovat<\/strong>. V\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odliv kapit\u00e1lu z fond\u016f by mohl pos\u00edlit tlak na cenu, zejm\u00e9na p\u0159i nedostatku nov\u00fdch n\u00e1kup\u016f. Trh tak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 n\u00e1chyln\u00fd k dal\u0161\u00edm kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdm v\u00fdkyv\u016fm.<\/p>

\u201eNen\u00ed pozd\u011b za\u010d\u00edt\u201c \u2013 Brian Armstrong odm\u00edt\u00e1 my\u0161lenku drah\u00e9ho Bitcoinu<\/h2><\/span>

V\u00fdkonn\u00fd \u0159editel Coinbase Brian Armstrong upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee i p\u0159i cen\u011b nad 100 000 USD nen\u00ed nutn\u00e9 kupovat cel\u00fd bitcoin. Nov\u00ed investo\u0159i mohou podle n\u011bj vstoupit na trh s mal\u00fdmi \u010d\u00e1stkami a postupn\u011b si budovat expozici<\/strong>. Armstrong odm\u00edt\u00e1 n\u00e1zor, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost u\u017e minula, a tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee dostupnost kryptom\u011bn<\/a> se d\u00edky regulaci a technologi\u00edm neust\u00e1le zlep\u0161uje. Tento postoj sd\u00edl\u00ed v\u00edce osobnost\u00ed kryptopr\u016fmyslu.<\/p>

<\/canvas><\/div><\/code><\/p>

Investi\u010dn\u00ed \u0159editel Bitwise Matt Hougan nap\u0159\u00edklad \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee \u201edokud bitcoin nedos\u00e1hne 500 000 USD, je st\u00e1le brzy\u201c. Tyler Winklevoss zase popisuje sou\u010dasn\u00fd stav jako \u201eza\u010d\u00e1tek prvn\u00edho inningu\u201c<\/strong> ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s trhem zlata. <\/p>

Armstrong z\u00e1rove\u0148 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee bitcoin m\u016f\u017ee do roku 2030 dos\u00e1hnout hodnoty 1 milionu USD, pokud bude pokra\u010dovat institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed adopce. Jeho vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed m\u00e1 podpo\u0159it investory, kte\u0159\u00ed se mohou vysok\u00fdch cen zbyte\u010dn\u011b ob\u00e1vat.<\/p>

\u010cty\u0159let\u00fd cyklus nebo struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed posun v ekosyst\u00e9mu?<\/h2><\/span>

N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed analytici se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 korekce p\u0159esn\u011b zapad\u00e1 do tradi\u010dn\u00edho \u010dty\u0159let\u00e9ho cyklu bitcoinu, kter\u00fd je \u0159\u00edzen\u00fd halvingy a n\u00e1sledn\u00fdmi tr\u017en\u00edmi reakcemi. Callan Sarre z Threshold Labs tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u0159\u00edjnov\u00e9 v\u00fdprodeje pouze uk\u00e1zaly slab\u0161\u00ed m\u00edsta v infrastruktu\u0159e trhu<\/strong>. Tento v\u00fdvoj podle n\u011bj potvrzuje, \u017ee cyklus pokra\u010duje p\u0159irozen\u00fdm tempem. Vn\u00edm\u00e1 proto aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed pohyb jako f\u00e1zi konsolidace p\u0159ed dal\u0161\u00ed dlouhodobou expanz\u00ed.<\/p>

Bitcoin dos\u00e1hl sv\u00e9ho posledn\u00edho historick\u00e9ho maxima 126 000 USD dne 6.\u0159\u00edjna, tedy p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 530 dn\u00ed po halvingu<\/a>,<\/strong> co\u017e \u010dasov\u011b odpov\u00edd\u00e1 vrchol\u016fm p\u0159edchoz\u00edch cykl\u016f. Podle Ilii Otychenka to nazna\u010duje pozdn\u00ed f\u00e1zi r\u016fstov\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed, nikoli v\u0161ak nutn\u011b konec cel\u00e9ho cyklu.<\/p>

\"Graf
Graf v\u00fdkonnosti bitcoinu od halvingu v posledn\u00edch 3 cyklech. Zdroj: Checkonchain\/CEX.io<\/figcaption><\/figure>

Naopak \u010d\u00e1st odborn\u00edk\u016f upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee trh ji\u017e nen\u00ed stejn\u00fd jako v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch cyklech. V\u00fdrazn\u00fd vstup instituc\u00ed, ETF fond\u016f a bank podle nich z\u00e1sadn\u011b m\u011bn\u00ed dynamiku popt\u00e1vky i nab\u00eddky. Austin King ze spole\u010dnosti Nomina zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee bitcoin je dnes pevn\u011bji nav\u00e1zan\u00fd na geopolitick\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti a m\u011bnovou politiku.<\/strong> To m\u016f\u017ee \u010dty\u0159let\u00fd cyklus oslabovat, nebo dokonce \u00fapln\u011b p\u0159etvo\u0159it.<\/p>

Vliv maj\u00ed i politick\u00e9 zm\u011bny ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech, kde prezident Donald Trump podporuje kryptom\u011bny v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u00edce ne\u017e jeho p\u0159edch\u016fdci. Siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed regulace a st\u00e1tn\u00ed strategie mohou p\u0159in\u00e9st nov\u00e9 institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9 toky, ale tak\u00e9 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed citlivost na rozhodnut\u00ed vl\u00e1dy. Mezi analytiky tak roste debata, zda bude budoucnost bitcoinu st\u00e1le \u0159\u00edzena cykly, nebo sp\u00ed\u0161e struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed prom\u011bnou trhu. <\/strong><\/p>

Z\u00e1v\u011br: Rizika p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed, ale dlouhodob\u00fd narativ z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 siln\u00fd<\/h2><\/span>

Sou\u010dasn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj ukazuje, \u017ee bitcoin \u010del\u00ed kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdm tlak\u016fm zp\u016fsoben\u00fdm geopolitick\u00fdm nap\u011bt\u00edm, makroekonomickou nejistotou a vyb\u00edr\u00e1n\u00edm zisk\u016f po dosa\u017een\u00ed nov\u00fdch maxim. Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 hladina 100 000 USD z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 z\u00e1sadn\u00ed psychologickou i technickou hranic\u00ed,<\/strong> kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee rozhodnout o dal\u0161\u00edm sm\u011bru trhu v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch t\u00fddnech. Slab\u0161\u00ed sez\u00f3nnost leto\u0161n\u00edho \u0159\u00edjna v\u0161ak neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee by do\u0161lo k naru\u0161en\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9ho r\u016fstov\u00e9ho trendu.<\/p>

Dlouhodob\u00e1 adopce v\u010detn\u011b institucion\u00e1ln\u00edch investic a regulovan\u00fdch produkt\u016f, jako jsou ETF, nad\u00e1le posiluje postaven\u00ed bitcoinu jako etablovan\u00e9ho aktiva. I kdy\u017e vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed prov\u00e1zanost s makroekonomi\u00ed p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed citliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed reakce na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ud\u00e1losti, z\u00e1rove\u0148 podporuje v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed legitimitu trhu.<\/strong> Bitcoin tak st\u00e1le p\u0159edstavuje aktivum s vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed volatilitou, ale tak\u00e9 potenci\u00e1ln\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u00fdm r\u016fstem v del\u0161\u00edm horizontu. <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0158\u00edjen b\u00fdv\u00e1 pro bitcoin tradi\u010dn\u011b siln\u00fdm m\u011bs\u00edcem, av\u0161ak rok 2025 ukazuje, \u017ee historick\u00e9 trendy nejsou z\u00e1rukou budouc\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f. Obchodn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou, zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se averze k riziku a celkov\u00e1 \u00fanava trhu zp\u016fsobily, \u017ee BTC v polovin\u011b \u0159\u00edjna ztr\u00e1c\u00ed na hodnot\u011b a investo\u0159i se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed poklesu pod kl\u00ed\u010dovou hladinu 100 000 USD. V \u010dl\u00e1nku […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":704,"featured_media":4105,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,28],"tags":[16,17,35,73,34,18,20],"editors":[346],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-4100","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-byci-trh","tag-instituce","tag-krypto","tag-kryptomeny","tag-usa","editors-jakub-ondruska"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin predikce: Hroz\u00ed n\u00e1vrat pod hranici 100 000 USD?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin ztr\u00e1c\u00ed na hodnot\u011b a hroz\u00ed pokles pod 100 000 USD. 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