{"id":3823,"date":"2025-10-17T08:56:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-17T08:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/?p=3823"},"modified":"2025-10-20T17:56:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-20T17:56:00","slug":"fed-brzdi-kvantitativni-utahovani-ale-powell-bije-na-poplach-kongres-muze-podkopat-kontrolu-nad-sazbami-a-vyvolat-paniku-mezi-investory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/news\/fed-brzdi-kvantitativni-utahovani-ale-powell-bije-na-poplach-kongres-muze-podkopat-kontrolu-nad-sazbami-a-vyvolat-paniku-mezi-investory\/","title":{"rendered":"Americk\u00fd Fed d\u00e1v\u00e1 trh\u016fm r\u016fstov\u00fd sign\u00e1l!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Americk\u00fd Fed<\/strong> stoj\u00ed p\u0159ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm obratem. \u0160\u00e9f centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky Jerome Powell<\/strong> ozn\u00e1mil<\/a>, \u017ee t\u0159\u00edlet\u00fd proces kvantitativn\u00edho utahov\u00e1n\u00ed (QT)<\/strong>, tedy sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed bilance Fed, se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed ke konci<\/strong>. Tento krok by mohl znamenat z\u00e1sadn\u00ed obrat v m\u011bnov\u00e9 politice USA. <\/p>

P\u0159edseda Fedu v\u0161ak vyslal varovn\u00fd sign\u00e1l sm\u011brem ke<\/strong> Kongresu<\/strong>. Ten podle n\u011bj m\u016f\u017ee svou legislativn\u00ed aktivitou ohrozit stabilitu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb<\/strong> a t\u00edm i d\u016fv\u011bru v americk\u00fd finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m<\/strong>.<\/p>

Fed signalizuje konec QT, ale varuje p\u0159ed rizikem z Kongresu<\/h2><\/span>

Powell vystoupil na konferenci National Association for Business Economics<\/strong> ve Filadelfii. ve sv\u00e9m projevu p\u0159ipomn\u011bl, \u017ee kone\u010dn\u00e1 f\u00e1ze QT<\/strong> p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed ve chv\u00edli, kdy se americk\u00fd trh pr\u00e1ce za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 ochlazovat<\/strong> a p\u0159ib\u00fdv\u00e1 zn\u00e1mek zpomalov\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomiky<\/strong>. <\/p>

Powell otev\u0159en\u011b p\u0159ipustil, \u017ee rizika poklesu zam\u011bstnanosti nar\u016fstaj\u00ed<\/strong>, co\u017e je pro Fed jasn\u00e9 varov\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e9 nastaven\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky u\u017e p\u016fsob\u00ed restriktivn\u011bji, ne\u017e je nutn\u00e9.<\/strong> Nazna\u010dil proto, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb o \u010dtvrt procentn\u00edho bodu<\/strong> na zased\u00e1n\u00ed 28.\u201329. \u0159\u00edjna<\/strong> z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1le na stole<\/strong>.<\/p>

Jin\u00fdmi slovy \u2013 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 p\u0159ehodnocovat m\u00edru restrikce sv\u00e9 politiky, aby podpo\u0159ila stabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst a p\u0159ede\u0161la v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu zpomalen\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>

Fed p\u0159itom od poloviny roku 2022 pozvolna sni\u017euje svou rozvahu<\/strong>, kter\u00e1 po pandemick\u00fdch stimulech vystoupala na t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 9 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f<\/strong>.<\/p>

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\"Fed
Fed od poloviny roku 2022 stahuje p\u0159ebyte\u010dnou likviditu, \u010d\u00edm\u017e zmen\u0161uje svou rozvahu po pandemick\u00e9m maximu. Zdroj: federalreserve.gov<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>

Powell z\u00e1rove\u0148 varoval Kongres p\u0159ed n\u00e1vrhem, kter\u00fd by zru\u0161il pravomoc Fedu vypl\u00e1cet \u00faroky z bankovn\u00edch rezerv<\/strong>. Podle Powella by takov\u00fd krok mohl v\u00e9st k tomu, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka \u201eztrat\u00ed kontrolu nad sazbami\u201c<\/strong> \u2013 co\u017e by znamenalo chaos nejen na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch, ale i v re\u00e1ln\u00e9 ekonomice.<\/p>

Podle n\u011bj by zru\u0161en\u00ed mo\u017enosti platit \u00faroky z rezerv donutilo centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banku k masivn\u00edm prodej\u016fm st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f a hypote\u010dn\u00edch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f<\/strong>. Fed p\u0159itom v sou\u010dasnosti st\u00e1le vykazuje ztr\u00e1tu kv\u016fli vysok\u00fdm sazb\u00e1m, ale Powell ujistil, \u017ee jde o \u201edo\u010dasn\u00fd a historicky ojedin\u011bl\u00fd stav\u201c<\/strong>.<\/p>

Bilance Fedu se zmen\u0161ila o 2,4 bilionu dolar\u016f<\/h2><\/span>

Od poloviny roku 2022 Fed nech\u00e1v\u00e1 sv\u00e9 maturuj\u00edc\u00ed dluhopisy postupn\u011b dob\u00edhat bez reinvestice<\/strong>, \u010d\u00edm\u017e zmen\u0161il svou bilanci o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2,4 bilionu dolar\u016f<\/strong>. Powell v\u0161ak upozornil, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed redukce rezerv by mohla ohrozit likviditu<\/strong> a omezit \u00fav\u011brovou aktivitu<\/strong>. <\/p>

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\"Struktura
Struktura portfolia Fedu podle splatnosti st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f. Zdroj: brookings.edu<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>

Fed podle n\u011bj nepl\u00e1nuje n\u00e1vrat na p\u0159edpandemickou \u00farove\u0148 kolem 4 bilion\u016f USD. <\/strong>D\u016fvodem je, <\/strong>\u017ee nerezervn\u00ed z\u00e1vazky z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v roce 2019, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b o 1,1 bilionu dolar\u016f<\/strong>.<\/p>

Powell p\u0159ipustil, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka m\u011bla pandemick\u00e9 kvantitativn\u00ed uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed (QE) ukon\u010dit d\u0159\u00edve, aby zabr\u00e1nila p\u0159esycen\u00ed trh\u016f levnou likviditou<\/strong>. <\/p>

K situaci na trhu pr\u00e1ce poznamenal, \u017ee jak propou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, tak p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch zam\u011bstnanc\u016f z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 na n\u00edzk\u00e9 \u00farovni, ale firmy u\u017e nemaj\u00ed takov\u00fd probl\u00e9m obsadit pozice<\/strong>. <\/p>

Podle nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch dat agentury ADP americk\u00e9 firmy v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed zru\u0161ily p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 32 000 pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst<\/strong>. To je d\u016fkazem, \u017ee ekonomika zpomaluje<\/strong>. Firmy za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed b\u00fdt opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, omezuj\u00ed n\u00e1klady a sni\u017euj\u00ed zam\u011bstnanost, co\u017e je typick\u00fd sign\u00e1l ochlazov\u00e1n\u00ed trhu pr\u00e1ce.<\/p>

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\"Zam\u011bstnanost
Zam\u011bstnanost v soukrom\u00e9m sektoru USA se po pandemick\u00e9m propadu stabiln\u011b zotavuje. Zdroj: adpemploymentreport.com<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>

Kongres jako hrozba pro hlavn\u00ed n\u00e1stroj Fedu<\/h2><\/span>

Powell se ost\u0159e vymezil v\u016f\u010di n\u00e1vrhu n\u011bkter\u00fdch z\u00e1konod\u00e1rc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed usiluj\u00ed o zru\u0161en\u00ed mo\u017enosti Fedu vypl\u00e1cet \u00farok z bankovn\u00edch rezerv. <\/strong>Upozornil, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b tento mechanismus je z\u00e1sadn\u00edm n\u00e1strojem m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky<\/strong> od roku 2008.<\/strong> <\/p>

N\u00e1vrh p\u0159edlo\u017een\u00fd sen\u00e1torem Tedem Cruzem<\/strong> sice Sen\u00e1t minul\u00fd t\u00fdden odm\u00edtl, ale debata pokra\u010duje<\/strong>. Powell upozornil, \u017ee podobn\u00e9 n\u00e1vrhy mohou podkopat nez\u00e1vislost Fedu<\/strong>, kter\u00e1 je z\u00e1kladem d\u016fv\u011bry v americkou ekonomiku.<\/p>

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 uvedl, \u017ee vl\u00e1dn\u00ed shutdown<\/strong>, kter\u00fd za\u010dal 1. \u0159\u00edjna, zt\u00ed\u017eil p\u0159\u00edstup k ekonomick\u00fdm statistik\u00e1m<\/strong>. I tak v\u0161ak centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka pozoruje, \u017ee dostupn\u00e9 ukazatele nazna\u010duj\u00ed<\/strong> p\u0159ekvapivou odolnost ekonomiky<\/strong>. <\/p>

Konec QT jako nov\u00fd b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed sign\u00e1l pro krypto<\/h2><\/span>

Powellovy v\u00fdroky okam\u017eit\u011b zarezonovaly i v krypto sektoru<\/strong>. Arthur Hayes, spoluzakladatel BitMEXu, tweetoval<\/a>:<\/p>

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\u201eTak tady to m\u00e1te, QT je u konce. Nakupte v\u0161echno, co se d\u00e1!\u201c<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>

Investo\u0159i tak za\u010dali s\u00e1zet na n\u00e1vrat likvidity<\/strong>, co\u017e v minulosti podpo\u0159ilo prudk\u00fd r\u016fst rizikov\u00fdch aktiv v\u010detn\u011b kryptom\u011bn<\/a>. <\/p>

Podle<\/a> Larka Davise<\/strong> by ukon\u010den\u00ed QT bylo \u201esuper-mega bullish pro bitcoin i <\/strong>altcoiny<\/strong><\/a>\u201c.<\/p>

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Powell just said the Fed could end QT in the coming months.

Super mega bullish for Bitcoin and alts. pic.twitter.com\/EBS3Jn5kxJ<\/a><\/p>— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) October 14, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote>