{"id":1824,"date":"2025-07-01T13:57:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T13:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/?p=1824"},"modified":"2025-07-01T13:57:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-01T13:57:00","slug":"sp-500-trha-rekordy-pomuze-jeho-rust-i-bitcoinu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cz\/news\/sp-500-trha-rekordy-pomuze-jeho-rust-i-bitcoinu\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 trh\u00e1 rekordy: Pom\u016f\u017ee jeho r\u016fst i bitcoinu?"},"content":{"rendered":"

M\u011bs\u00edc \u010derven se pro americk\u00fd akciov\u00fd trh zap\u00ed\u0161e do historie. V p\u00e1tek se vlajkov\u00e9 akciov\u00e9 indexy vy\u0161plhaly na historick\u00e1 maxima<\/strong>. Stalo se tak navzdory p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edmu nap\u011bt\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a nejednozna\u010dn\u00e9mu ekonomick\u00e9mu v\u00fdvoji<\/strong>.<\/p>

Index S&P 500<\/strong> zakon\u010dil t\u00fdden na \u00farovni 6 173 bod\u016f<\/strong>, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se po \u00fanorov\u00e9m propadu op\u011bt vy\u0161vihl k absolutn\u00edm rekord\u016fm. Technologicky zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fd Nasdaq 100<\/strong> dos\u00e1hl neb\u00fdval\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161in ji\u017e v pr\u016fb\u011bhu t\u00fddne. <\/p>

\n
\"S&P
S&P 500 atakuje rekordn\u00ed hodnoty. Zdroj: Google Finance<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>

Digit\u00e1ln\u00ed vlna zved\u00e1 Wall Street: Kryptom\u011bnov\u00e9 akcie v centru pozornosti<\/h2><\/span>

Nemal\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st t\u00e9to euforie na trz\u00edch je p\u0159i\u010d\u00edt\u00e1na spole\u010dnostem, jejich\u017e podnik\u00e1n\u00ed je \u00fazce spjato s kryptom\u011bnami<\/a>. <\/p>

Akcie Coinbase (COIN)<\/strong> po sv\u00e9m za\u0159azen\u00ed do indexu S&P 500 v kv\u011btnu zaznamenaly raketov\u00fd vzestup<\/strong>. B\u011bhem pouh\u00e9ho m\u011bs\u00edce pos\u00edlily o impozantn\u00edch 40 %<\/strong>. P\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed uzav\u0159ely na nov\u00e9m rekordu 369,21 dolar\u016f<\/strong>, co\u017e je jejich nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnota od listopadu 2021<\/strong>. <\/p>

Tento v\u00fdkon je jasn\u00fdm d\u016fkazem rostouc\u00ed institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry v digit\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku. To potvrdilo i ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed<\/strong> CZ<\/strong>, kter\u00fd hovo\u0159il<\/a> o posunu narativu „americk\u00e9ho snu“ sm\u011brem k vlastnictv\u00ed<\/strong> bitcoinu<\/strong>.<\/p>

Naopak v r\u00e1mci indexu Nasdaq 100, akcie Strategy (MSTR)<\/strong>, firmy proslul\u00e9 sv\u00fdmi rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdmi bitcoinov\u00fdmi rezervami, zaznamenaly za posledn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc jen skromn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst o 9 %<\/strong>. To m\u016f\u017ee nazna\u010dovat, \u017ee po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed nad\u0161en\u00ed investor\u016f pro jej\u00ed unik\u00e1tn\u00ed strategii, spojenou s dr\u017een\u00edm BTC, za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 m\u00edrn\u011b opad\u00e1vat<\/strong>. <\/p>

\n
\"V\u00fdkon
V\u00fdkon akci\u00ed MicroStrategy a Coinbase za m\u011bs\u00edc \u010derven. Zdroj: TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>

I p\u0159es tento ned\u00e1vn\u00fd \u00fatlum si v\u0161ak MicroStrategy za posledn\u00ed rok p\u0159ipsaly<\/strong> \u00factyhodn\u00fdch 178 %<\/strong>. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b st\u00e1le se dr\u017e\u00ed pom\u011brn\u011b daleko od sv\u00e9ho 52t\u00fddenn\u00edho maxima 542,99 dolar\u016f z lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku<\/strong>.<\/p>

Pro\u010d je Wall Street kompasem pro kryptom\u011bny?<\/h2><\/span>

M\u016f\u017eete se t\u00e1zat, jak\u00e9 jsou d\u016fvody, pro\u010d by d\u011bn\u00ed na tradi\u010dn\u00edch finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch m\u011blo zaj\u00edmat milovn\u00edky kryptom\u011bn<\/a>. Vysv\u011btlen\u00ed je nasnad\u011b: dynamika Wall Street v\u00fdznamn\u011b ovliv\u0148uje trendy na kryptom\u011bnov\u00fdch trz\u00edch<\/strong> a \u010dasto p\u0159edur\u010duje, zda p\u0159evl\u00e1dne b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed euforie<\/strong>, nebo se naopak rozhost\u00ed medv\u011bd\u00ed sentiment<\/strong>.<\/p>

Analytick\u00e1 platforma Newhedge dlouhodob\u011b pe\u010dliv\u011b monitoruje korelaci mezi cenov\u00fdm v\u00fdvojem <\/strong>bitcoinu<\/strong><\/a> a indexu S&P 500<\/strong>, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 \u0161k\u00e1lu od -1 do 1<\/strong>. Ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo na t\u00e9to stupnici znamen\u00e1, \u017ee se ob\u011b aktiva pohybuj\u00ed opa\u010dn\u00fdm sm\u011brem (kdy\u017e BTC roste, akcie klesaj\u00ed), kde\u017eto \u010d\u00edslo bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se 1 nazna\u010duje jejich synchronizovan\u00fd pohyb<\/strong>.<\/p>

\n
\"Korelace
Korelace bitcoin vs S&P 500. Zdroj: Newhedge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>

Moment\u00e1ln\u011b dosahuje tato korelace 0,47<\/strong>, co\u017e jasn\u011b poukazuje na z\u0159etelnou prov\u00e1zanost mezi akciemi a kryptom\u011bnami<\/a><\/strong>. Z toho vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee trajektorie bitcoinu je v sou\u010dasnosti zna\u010dn\u011b formov\u00e1na \u0161ir\u0161\u00edmi makroekonomick\u00fdmi vlivy a celkov\u00fdm tr\u017en\u00edm sentimentem.<\/strong><\/p>

Samotn\u00fd z\u00e1jem o BTC jako digit\u00e1ln\u00ed aktivum tedy v tuto chv\u00edli nehraje hlavn\u00ed roli<\/strong>. Newhedge k tomu dod\u00e1v\u00e1:<\/p>

\n

\u201eP\u0159i oslaben\u00ed korelace s akciov\u00fdmi trhy b\u00fdv\u00e1 cenov\u00e1 dynamika bitcoinu prim\u00e1rn\u011b ur\u010dov\u00e1na jeho vnit\u0159n\u00edmi fundament\u00e1ln\u00edmi faktory, jako jsou pevn\u00e1 nab\u00eddka, adop\u010dn\u00ed cykly a halvingov\u00e9<\/a> eventy.\u201c<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>

S ohledem na to se bl\u00ed\u017ee pod\u00edv\u00e1me, co \u010dek\u00e1 akciov\u00fd trh s postupuj\u00edc\u00edm rokem 2025<\/strong> a jak by to mohlo ovlivnit budouc\u00ed sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/strong> bitcoinu<\/strong>.<\/p>

Makroekonomick\u00e9 proudy: Odolnost trhu a nevy\u0159e\u0161en\u00e1 inflace<\/h2><\/span>

Jedn\u00edm z nejv\u00edce p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fdch aspekt\u016f je bleskov\u00e9 zotaven\u00ed S&P 500 z dubnov\u00e9ho dramatick\u00e9ho propadu<\/strong>. V t\u00e9 dob\u011b index klesl pod 5 000 bod\u016f a hrozil vstup do medv\u011bd\u00edho teritoria. Takov\u00fd rychl\u00fd odraz je neobvykl\u00fd a nazna\u010duje, \u017ee obavy obchodn\u00edk\u016f z mo\u017en\u00fdch dopad\u016f cel uvalen\u00fdch Donaldem Trumpem se v\u00fdznamn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eily<\/strong>.<\/p>

K uvoln\u011bn\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 i nov\u00e1 dohoda mezi mezi hlavn\u00edmi glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi hr\u00e1\u010di USA a \u010c\u00ednou<\/strong>. Ta otev\u00edr\u00e1 americk\u00fdm spole\u010dnostem p\u0159\u00edstup ke strategick\u00fdm surovin\u00e1m, jako jsou vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 zeminy a magnety<\/strong>.<\/p>

Inflace<\/strong> v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 stra\u0161\u00e1kem<\/strong>, a to jak pro spot\u0159ebitele, tak pro korporace. Existuj\u00ed obavy, \u017ee Trumpova<\/strong> standardn\u00ed 10% cla na \u0159adu dov\u00e1\u017een\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed by se mohla brzy projevit v ekonomick\u00fdch datech<\/strong>. <\/p>

Dlouhodob\u00fd infla\u010dn\u00ed c\u00edl Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu jsou 2 %<\/strong>, ale sou\u010dasn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla tvrdohlav\u011b ukazuj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnoty<\/strong>. Tato situace vede p\u0159edsedu Fedu, Jeromeho Powella<\/strong>, k neochot\u011b sni\u017eovat \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina \u010dlen\u016f Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho v\u00fdboru pro voln\u00fd trh (FOMC) nazna\u010duje, \u017ee sazby z\u016fstanou na konci \u010dervence op\u011bt beze zm\u011bny<\/strong>.<\/p>

Dal\u0161\u00ed setrv\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb na st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed \u00farovni by nepochybn\u011b vyvolalo nelibost u Trumpa, kter\u00fd opakovan\u011b vyz\u00fdval Powella k odstoupen\u00ed. Americk\u00fd prezident si p\u0159eje v\u00fdrazn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby<\/strong>, ne\u017e jsou ty sou\u010dasn\u00e9 \u2013 ned\u00e1vno dokonce na platform\u011b Truth Social navrhl jejich sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed na 1 %<\/strong>.<\/p>

S&P 500: Dv\u011b tv\u00e1\u0159e budoucnosti a Trump\u016fv faktor nep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti<\/h2><\/span>

Bude tedy S&P 500<\/strong> pokra\u010dovat ve sv\u00e9m vzestupu? Zde se n\u00e1zory analytik\u016f rozch\u00e1zej\u00ed<\/strong>.<\/p>

Analytici agentury Bloomberg<\/strong> tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee kdy\u017e index dos\u00e1hne nov\u00e9ho historick\u00e9ho maxima po obdob\u00ed medv\u011bd\u00edho trhu nebo korekce, obvykle n\u00e1sleduj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed zisky<\/strong>. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b anal\u00fdzy sedmi p\u0159edchoz\u00edch takov\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed \u010dinily pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy po t\u0159ech m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch 0,4 %, po \u0161esti m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch 6,6 % a po roce 13,1 %<\/strong>.<\/p>

\n
\"Nov\u00e1
Nov\u00e1 maxima S&P 500 \u010dasto p\u0159edznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst. Zdroj: Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>

Naopak Ryan Detrick<\/strong>, hlavn\u00ed tr\u017en\u00ed strat\u00e9g Carson Group, nab\u00edz\u00ed odli\u0161nou, pon\u011bkud pesimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed perspektivu. Prozkoumal data t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se \u010dasov\u00e9ho odstupu mezi dosa\u017een\u00edm historick\u00fdch maxim S&P 500<\/strong> a zjistil, \u017ee pokud je mezi ATH interval<\/strong> \u010dty\u0159 a\u017e dvan\u00e1cti m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f<\/strong>, \u201ebudouc\u00ed v\u00fdnosy jsou sp\u00ed\u0161e utlumen\u00e9<\/strong>\u201c.<\/p>

\n

The S&P 500 hasn't hit a new high in more than four months, but that could end any day now.

Turns out, when it goes between 4-12 months without a new ATH and then hits one, the forward returns are quite muted.

Not once up double digits a year later. Hmm. pic.twitter.com\/GLKg4AZmPU<\/a><\/p>— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) June 26, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote>