{"id":87770,"date":"2022-09-17T00:10:00","date_gmt":"2022-09-17T00:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cn.cryptonews.com\/?p=87770"},"modified":"2023-06-26T11:26:43","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T11:26:43","slug":"ru-guo-zhe-ge-xin-hao-shi-zheng-que-de-hua-bi-te-bi-jia-ge-ke-neng-jiu-kuai-chu-di-le","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/ru-guo-zhe-ge-xin-hao-shi-zheng-que-de-hua-bi-te-bi-jia-ge-ke-neng-jiu-kuai-chu-di-le\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4fe1\u53f7\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u5feb\u89e6\u5e95\u4e86"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
来源：Adobe Stock<\/figcaption><\/figure>

比特币（BTC）自 2021 年 11 月达到约 69,000 美元的历史新高以来，已被锁进连续 10 个月的下跌趋势当中。然而，历史数据表明，这个旗舰型的加密货币已进入熊市的后期阶段，也可能接近其价格的底部。<\/p>

区块链分析公司 Glassnode 在最新一期的 Week Onchain 报告中指出了这些数据。该报告使用市场价值对实现价值 (MVRV\/ the market-value-to-realized value) 来衡量了 BTC 的现货价格与不同市场参与者群体的成本基础，指出比特币的价格可能很快就会触底。<\/p>

分析确定了三组市场参与者，包括整体市场、长期持有人 (LTH\/ long-term holders) 和短期持有人 (STH\/ short-term holders)。将现货市场价格与他们的各种链上成本基础进行比较显示，他们的 MVRV 的比率有大约 56 天是在低于 1 的区域当中 — 在这个区域内，所有群组都持有未实现的亏损 (unrealized loss)。<\/p>

尽管承认 56 天仍低于之前熊市约 190 天的平均底部价格形成的持续时间，但该比率仍显示 STH 的财务压力将会持续较长的时间。正如在其他熊市中观察到的那样，这样的时期通常伴随着投降式抛售 (capitulation)，亦即在价格周期顶部附近购买的代币却以低得多的价格来出售。<\/p>

“在整个低迷的熊市中，持续的价格贬值导致 STH 的已实现价格跌至 LTH 的已实现价格以下……这与投降式抛售是同样的意思，在价格周期顶部附近购买的代币却以低得多的价格出售并易手，” 该报告称。<\/p><\/blockquote>

尽管比特币已经经历了 10 个月的下跌，但尚未达到这种投降式抛售的交叉阶段。但按照市场的轨迹，应该很快就会到来 (在 9 月中旬之前)，Glassnode 说。而市场也需要大约 145 到 339 天才能恢复。<\/p>

其他指标也显示比特币价格接近底部<\/strong><\/h2><\/span>

基本上，MVRV 比率将市值与其已实现资本进行比较，以了解价格何时高于或低于“公允价值”，并评估市场的盈利能力。<\/p>

Glassnode 的分析是在 BTC 过去三个月在 25,000 美元左右的高位和 17,500 美元的低位之间度过的，其中相当一部分时间在 20,000 美元左右徘徊。<\/p>

其他的分析也预测价格的底限在这个范围内。 CNBC 上个月末报导称，交易员使用的另一个关键市场指标 – 比特币哈希丝带 (Bitcoin hash ribbons) – 闪现了买入的信号，以显示可能的底价。<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

来源：Adobe Stock比特币（BTC）自 2021 年 11 月达到约 69,000 美元的历史新高以来，已被锁进连续 10 个月的下跌趋势当中。然而，历史数据表明，这个旗舰型的加密货币已进入熊市的后期阶段，也可能接近其价格的底部。区块链分析公司 Glassnode 在最新一期的 Week Onchain 报告中指出了这些数据。该报告使用市场价值对实现价值 (MVRV\/ the market-value-to-realized value) 来衡量了 BTC 的现货价格与不同市场参与者群体的成本基础，指出比特币的价格可能很快就会触底。分析确定了三组市场参与者，包括整体市场、长期持有人 (LTH\/ long-term holders) 和短期持有人 (STH\/ short-term holders)。将现货市场价格与他们的各种链上成本基础进行比较显示，他们的 MVRV 的比率有大约 56 天是在低于 1 的区域当中 — 在这个区域内，所有群组都持有未实现的亏损 (unrealized loss)。尽管承认 56 天仍低于之前熊市约 190 天的平均底部价格形成的持续时间，但该比率仍显示 STH 的财务压力将会持续较长的时间。正如在其他熊市中观察到的那样，这样的时期通常伴随着投降式抛售 (capitulation)，亦即在价格周期顶部附近购买的代币却以低得多的价格来出售。 “在整个低迷的熊市中，持续的价格贬值导致 STH 的已实现价格跌至 LTH 的已实现价格以下……这与投降式抛售是同样的意思，在价格周期顶部附近购买的代币却以低得多的价格出售并易手，” 该报告称。 尽管比特币已经经历了 10 个月的下跌，但尚未达到这种投降式抛售的交叉阶段。但按照市场的轨迹，应该很快就会到来 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[],"editors":[2415],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-87770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news","editors-ada-chui"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4fe1\u53f7\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u5feb\u89e6\u5e95\u4e86<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"来源：Adobe Stock比特币（BTC）自 2021 年 11 月达到约 69,000\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/ru-guo-zhe-ge-xin-hao-shi-zheng-que-de-hua-bi-te-bi-jia-ge-ke-neng-jiu-kuai-chu-di-le\/\" \/>\n<meta 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