{"id":186367,"date":"2024-09-04T11:29:10","date_gmt":"2024-09-04T11:29:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cn.cryptonews.com\/?p=186367"},"modified":"2024-09-04T11:29:10","modified_gmt":"2024-09-04T11:29:10","slug":"arthur-hayes-has-shifted-from-being-short-term-bullish-on-bitcoin-to-bearish-jokingly-admitting-that-trusting-his-short-term-predictions-is-about-as-reliable-as-flipping-a-coin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/arthur-hayes-has-shifted-from-being-short-term-bullish-on-bitcoin-to-bearish-jokingly-admitting-that-trusting-his-short-term-predictions-is-about-as-reliable-as-flipping-a-coin\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes\u77ed\u671f\u7531\u770b\u597d\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u53d8\u770b\u8dcc  \u81ea\u5632\u4fe1\u4ed6\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u63b7\u786c\u5e01\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>BitMEX \u5171\u540c\u521b\u529e\u4eba Arthur Hayes \u4ee5\u4e8e9\u67083\u65e5\u4ee5\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/cryptohayes.substack.com\/p\/boom-times-delayed\">Boom Times\u2026 Delayed<\/a>\u201d\uff08\u7206\u53d1&#8230;\u5ef6\u671f\uff09\u53d1\u6587\uff0c\u8fd9\u5929\u521a\u597d\u662f\u80a1\u5e02\u52a8\u8361\u7684\u4e00\u5929\uff0c\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u6307\u6570\u6536\u76d8\u8dcc\u8fd13%\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ea6\u8dcc\u8fd14\uff05\uff0c\u73b0\u62a5$56,522\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e3b\u8981\u9610\u8ff0\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u7206\u53d1\u4f1a\u56e0\u51cf\u606f\u7b49\u4e8b\u60c5\u53c8\u5ef6\u671f\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u4ecd\u770b\u597d\u3002<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3a\u8fce\u5408\u653f\u5ba2\u800c\u51cf\u606f\">\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3a\u8fce\u5408\u653f\u5ba2\u800c\u51cf\u606f<\/h2><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><p>Arthur Hayes\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u901a\u8fc7\u81ea1980\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u5feb\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\uff0c\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u4f20\u9012\u4e86\u5176\u6297\u51fb\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u51b3\u5fc3\u3002\u4ece2022\u5e743\u6708\u52302023\u5e747\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u6bcf\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u81f3\u5c11\u52a0\u606f0.25%\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u653f\u5e9c\u64cd\u7eb5\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6570\u521b\u4e0b40\u5e74\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c10\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e5f\u4ece\u672a\u8d85\u8fc74%\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u6ee1\u610f\u4e8e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u52a0\u606f\u4ee5\u6d88\u9664\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u957f\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u6ca1\u6709\u5931\u63a7\u3002<\/p><p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u57282023\u5e748\u6708\u7684\u6770\u514b\u900a\u970d\u5c14\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u6697\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u57289\u6708\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u6682\u505c\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u4f46\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u9634\u5f71\u4f9d\u7136\u7b3c\u7f69\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u652f\u51fa\u6ca1\u6709\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002<\/p><p>\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u653f\u5ba2\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8fde\u4efb\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8d27\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u4e3a\u9009\u6c11\u63d0\u4f9b\u514d\u8d39\u798f\u5229\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u63d0\u9ad8\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8fde\u4efb\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u53ea\u628a\u597d\u5904\u7ed9\u4f60\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e9b\u597d\u5904\u7531\u4f60\u53cd\u5bf9\u8005\u548c\u652f\u6301\u8005\u7684\u8f9b\u82e6\u50a8\u84c4\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u653f\u6cbb\u7b97\u8ba1\u5c31\u4f1a\u504f\u5411\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u51fa\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f60\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u8d76\u4e0b\u53f0\u3002\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u62dc\u767b\u653f\u5e9c\u6240\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p><h2 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class=\"replacer\"><\/span><p>\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d22\u653f\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c2023\u5e748\u670823\u65e5\u6770\u514b\u900a\u970d\u5c14\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\uff0c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u6697\u793a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u57289\u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u6682\u505c\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u52a0\u606f\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3a\u8d64\u5b57\u878d\u8d44\u7684\u6210\u672c\u5c31\u8d8a\u9ad8\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u589e\u52a0\u8d64\u5b57\u878d\u8d44\u6210\u672c\u6765\u963b\u6b62\u8fd9\u79cd\u653e\u7eb5\u7684\u652f\u51fa\u3002\u652f\u51fa\u662f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8bd5\u56fe\u6291\u5236\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u901a\u80c0\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5374\u62d2\u7edd\u7ee7\u7eed\u52a0\u606f\u4ee5\u53d6\u5f97\u6210\u529f\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u4ee3\u66ff\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6267\u884c\u4efb\u52a1\u3002<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u6682\u65f6\u8f6c\u770b\u7a7a\">\u6682\u65f6\u8f6c\u770b\u7a7a<\/h2><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><p>\u4ed6\u5206\u6790\u9053\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5728\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5de5\u8d44\u8f6c\u5411\u7684\u5f53\u5929\u98d9\u5347\u81f364,000\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5468\u4e2d\uff0c\u5176\u6cd5\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u56de\u843d\u4e8610%\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u662f\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7f8e\u5143\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u72b6\u51b5\u7684\u6700\u654f\u611f\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u968f\u7740RRP\uff08\u9006\u56de\u8d2d\u534f\u8bae\uff09\u4e0a\u5347\u7ea61200\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5e94\u58f0\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u968f\u7740RRP\u4f59\u989d\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8d44\u91d1\u88ab\u201c\u51bb\u7ed3\u201d\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u4e0a\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5728\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u91cd\u65b0\u6760\u6746\u5316\u3002<\/p><p>\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u6781\u9ad8\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ed6\u627f\u8ba4\u81ea\u5df1\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc7\u5ea6\u89e3\u8bfb\u4e00\u5468\u4ef7\u683c\u8d70\u52bf\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\uff0c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4ed6\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u57289\u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u4e0d\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1T-bill\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u575a\u5b88\u4f4e\u4e8eRRP\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cRRP\u4f59\u989d\u5e94\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6700\u591a\u4f1a\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u7f13\u6162\u8dcc\u81f350,000\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u63b7\u786c\u5e01\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\">\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u63b7\u786c\u5e01\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a<\/h2><span class=\"replacer\"><\/span><p>\u800c\u6700\u540eArthur Hayes\u6307\u81ea\u5df1\u6ca1\u6709\u56e0\u4e3a\u77ed\u671f\u770b\u7a7a\u800c\u5356\u51fa\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u7684\u770b\u7a7a\u662f\u6682\u65f6\u7684\u3002<\/p><p>\u6587\u7ae0\u672b\u6bb5\u4ed6\u66f4\u76f4\u8a00\u81ea\u5df1\u66fe\u516c\u5f00\u8868\u793a\u725b\u5e02\u5c06\u57289\u6708\u91cd\u65b0\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u800c\u73b0\u5728\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4e3b\u610f\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e1d\u6beb\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u4ed6\u7684\u6301\u4ed3\u3002\u4ed6\u4ecd\u7136\u957f\u671f\u770b\u597d\u4e14\u6ca1\u6709\u6760\u6746\u3002\u6211\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e2d\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u8865\u5145\u5c06\u662f\u4ee5\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5927\u7684\u6298\u6263\u589e\u6301\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6709\u5408\u7406\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u4f18\u8d28\u5c71\u5be8\u5e01\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u6cd5\u5e01\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u9f99\u5934\u6309\u8ba1\u5212\u518d\u6b21\u6253\u5f00\uff0c\u6709\u771f\u5b9e\u7528\u6237\u4e3a\u4ea7\u54c1\u4ed8\u8d39\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u4ee3\u5e01\u5c06\u98d9\u5347\u3002<\/p><p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u6709\u6708\u5ea6\u635f\u76ca\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u804c\u4e1a\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u6216\u4f7f\u7528\u6760\u6746\u7684\u5468\u672b\u52c7\u58eb\uff0c\u62b1\u6b49\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u6bd4\u63b7\u786c\u5e01\u597d\u591a\u5c11\u3002\u6211\u6709\u957f\u671f\u504f\u89c1\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u638c\u63a7\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4eba\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u5370\u949e\u89e3\u51b3\u6240\u6709\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u770b\u6de1\u6bd4\u7279\u5e019\u6708\u8868\u73b0\uff01\u6307\u670983%\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff01\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f9\u67082\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff5cCryptonews\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/SxrGPCM1Uok?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BitMEX \u5171\u540c\u521b\u529e\u4eba Arthur Hayes \u4ee5\u4e8e9\u67083\u65e5\u4ee5\u201cBoom Times\u2026 Delayed\u201d\uff08\u7206\u53d1&#8230;\u5ef6\u671f\uff09\u53d1\u6587\uff0c\u8fd9\u5929\u521a\u597d\u662f\u80a1\u5e02\u52a8\u8361\u7684\u4e00\u5929\uff0c\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u6307\u6570\u6536\u76d8\u8dcc\u8fd13%\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ea6\u8dcc\u8fd14\uff05\uff0c\u73b0\u62a5$56,522\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e3b\u8981\u9610\u8ff0\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u7206\u53d1\u4f1a\u56e0\u51cf\u606f\u7b49\u4e8b\u60c5\u53c8\u5ef6\u671f\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u4ecd\u770b\u597d\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3a\u8fce\u5408\u653f\u5ba2\u800c\u51cf\u606fArthur 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Hayes\u6307\u81ea\u5df1\u6ca1\u6709\u56e0\u4e3a\u77ed\u671f\u770b\u7a7a\u800c\u5356\u51fa\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u7684\u770b\u7a7a\u662f\u6682\u65f6\u7684\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u672b\u6bb5\u4ed6\u66f4\u76f4\u8a00\u81ea\u5df1\u66fe\u516c\u5f00\u8868\u793a\u725b\u5e02\u5c06\u57289\u6708\u91cd\u65b0\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u800c\u73b0\u5728\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4e3b\u610f\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e1d\u6beb\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u4ed6\u7684\u6301\u4ed3\u3002\u4ed6\u4ecd\u7136\u957f\u671f\u770b\u597d\u4e14\u6ca1\u6709\u6760\u6746\u3002\u6211\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e2d\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u8865\u5145\u5c06\u662f\u4ee5\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5927\u7684\u6298\u6263\u589e\u6301\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6709\u5408\u7406\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u4f18\u8d28\u5c71\u5be8\u5e01\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u6cd5\u5e01\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u9f99\u5934\u6309\u8ba1\u5212\u518d\u6b21\u6253\u5f00\uff0c\u6709\u771f\u5b9e\u7528\u6237\u4e3a\u4ea7\u54c1\u4ed8\u8d39\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u4ee3\u5e01\u5c06\u98d9\u5347\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u6709\u6708\u5ea6\u635f\u76ca\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u804c\u4e1a\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u6216\u4f7f\u7528\u6760\u6746\u7684\u5468\u672b\u52c7\u58eb\uff0c\u62b1\u6b49\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u6bd4\u63b7\u786c\u5e01\u597d\u591a\u5c11\u3002\u6211\u6709\u957f\u671f\u504f\u89c1\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u638c\u63a7\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4eba\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u5370\u949e\u89e3\u51b3\u6240\u6709\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":308,"featured_media":186369,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[68,69,444],"editors":[1080],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-186367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news","tag-jia-mi-huo-bi","tag-bi-te-bi","tag-bi-te-bi-jia-ge","editors-allen-li"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Arthur Hayes\u77ed\u671f\u7531\u770b\u597d\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u53d8\u770b\u8dcc \u81ea\u5632\u4fe1\u4ed6\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u63b7\u786c\u5e01\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"BitMEX \u5171\u540c\u521b\u529e\u4eba Arthur Hayes \u4ee5\u4e8e9\u67083\u65e5\u4ee5\u201cBoom Times\u2026 Delayed\u201d\uff08\u7206\u53d1...\u5ef6\u671f\uff09\u53d1\u6587\uff0c\u8fd9\u5929\u521a\u597d\u662f\u80a1\u5e02\u52a8\u8361\u7684\u4e00\u5929\uff0c\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u6307\u6570\u6536\u76d8\u8dcc\u8fd13%\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ea6\u8dcc\u8fd14\uff05\uff0c\u73b0\u62a5$56,522\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e3b\u8981\u9610\u8ff0\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u7206\u53d1\u4f1a\u56e0\u51cf\u606f\u7b49\u4e8b\u60c5\u53c8\u5ef6\u671f\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u4ecd\u770b\u597d\u3002\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/arthur-hayes-has-shifted-from-being-short-term-bullish-on-bitcoin-to-bearish-jokingly-admitting-that-trusting-his-short-term-predictions-is-about-as-reliable-as-flipping-a-coin\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Arthur Hayes\u77ed\u671f\u7531\u770b\u597d\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u53d8\u770b\u8dcc \u81ea\u5632\u4fe1\u4ed6\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u63b7\u786c\u5e01\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"BitMEX \u5171\u540c\u521b\u529e\u4eba Arthur Hayes \u4ee5\u4e8e9\u67083\u65e5\u4ee5\u201cBoom Times\u2026 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