{"id":158005,"date":"2024-04-11T14:08:55","date_gmt":"2024-04-11T14:08:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cn.cryptonews.com\/?p=158005"},"modified":"2024-04-11T14:08:37","modified_gmt":"2024-04-11T14:08:37","slug":"bitfinex-fen-xi-bi-te-bi-jian-ban-hou-you-wang-shang-zhang160-duan-qi-tou-zi-zhe-zai6wan-mei-yuan-yi-shang-wei-zhi-bu-ju","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/bitfinex-fen-xi-bi-te-bi-jian-ban-hou-you-wang-shang-zhang160-duan-qi-tou-zi-zhe-zai6wan-mei-yuan-yi-shang-wei-zhi-bu-ju\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitfinex\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u51cf\u534a\u540e\u6709\u671b\u4e0a\u6da8160% \u77ed\u671f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u57286\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4f4d\u7f6e\u5e03\u5c40"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>

根据4月8日 Bitfinex 发布的周报<\/a>，分析人员指出随着进入比特币的减半<\/a>月，Bitfinex回顾了自2012年以来所有的减半事件，并使用一个简单的回归模型预测。\n<\/p>

比特币减半后有望冲击17万美元<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

\n分析师以其采用的模型下，在接下来的14个月里，减半后价格将上涨160%，使价格达到150,000到169,000美元之间。然而，这种方法可能过于简化。2024年的减半与之前所有的减半的关键区别在于，BTC已经在减半发生之前达到了历史最高价。现在，无论是长期持有者还是短期持有者（STHs），都有更多的卖压，这意味着计算BTC能涨多高就更加复杂了。\n<\/p>

长期持有者高位卖出<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

\n实际上，BTC似乎已经进入了一个在65,000美元和71,000美元之间的整合阶段，并且这一阶段特别波动。链上分析揭示，已有187.5万个BTC，占流通供应量的9.5%，以超过60,000美元的价格购买，其中相当一部分属于短期持有者。这一群体包括新的现货买家和大约508,000 BTC目前持有在美国现货ETF<\/a>中（不包括Grayscale ETF）。这些买家已经吸收了自2023年12月以来长期持有者释放到市场上的大约900,000 BTC（包括Grayscale ETF的卖出），并且买入了更多，但这两个群体也都在卖出，导致我们目前正在经历的区间波动。<\/p>

这种分布突显了STHs在更高价格水平的积极参与，比特币所有权的动态演变，以及通过现货ETF的机构投资日益增长的影响力。随着越来越多的实体在这一周期中移动他们的币，群体之间的活跃性接近周期高点。这使得市场尤其难以判断。\n<\/p>

6月降息未明朗<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

\n在更广泛的宏观经济中，3月份的就业市场表现超出预期，显示出强劲的增长和工资上涨，可能会影响联邦储备委员会的利率决策。失业率下降。尽管如此，市场对于6月联储会降息的可能性越来越谨慎。联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在最近的一次演讲中承认在对抗通胀方面取得了进展，但注意到任务远未完成。鲍威尔强调了稳健的经济增长和就业创造，暗示在这次紧缩周期中政策利率可能已达到顶峰，如果经济如预期那样发展，今年晚些时候可能会有利率下调。<\/p>

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=sGlJ6SmLh-I<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

根据4月8日 Bitfinex 发布的周报，分析人员指出随着进入比特币的减半月，Bitfinex回顾了自2012年以来所有的减半事件，并使用一个简单的回归模型预测。 比特币减半后有望冲击17万美元 分析师以其采用的模型下，在接下来的14个月里，减半后价格将上涨160%，使价格达到150,000到169,000美元之间。然而，这种方法可能过于简化。2024年的减半与之前所有的减半的关键区别在于，BTC已经在减半发生之前达到了历史最高价。现在，无论是长期持有者还是短期持有者（STHs），都有更多的卖压，这意味着计算BTC能涨多高就更加复杂了。 长期持有者高位卖出 实际上，BTC似乎已经进入了一个在65,000美元和71,000美元之间的整合阶段，并且这一阶段特别波动。链上分析揭示，已有187.5万个BTC，占流通供应量的9.5%，以超过60,000美元的价格购买，其中相当一部分属于短期持有者。这一群体包括新的现货买家和大约508,000 BTC目前持有在美国现货ETF中（不包括Grayscale ETF）。这些买家已经吸收了自2023年12月以来长期持有者释放到市场上的大约900,000 BTC（包括Grayscale ETF的卖出），并且买入了更多，但这两个群体也都在卖出，导致我们目前正在经历的区间波动。这种分布突显了STHs在更高价格水平的积极参与，比特币所有权的动态演变，以及通过现货ETF的机构投资日益增长的影响力。随着越来越多的实体在这一周期中移动他们的币，群体之间的活跃性接近周期高点。这使得市场尤其难以判断。 6月降息未明朗 在更广泛的宏观经济中，3月份的就业市场表现超出预期，显示出强劲的增长和工资上涨，可能会影响联邦储备委员会的利率决策。失业率下降。尽管如此，市场对于6月联储会降息的可能性越来越谨慎。联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在最近的一次演讲中承认在对抗通胀方面取得了进展，但注意到任务远未完成。鲍威尔强调了稳健的经济增长和就业创造，暗示在这次紧缩周期中政策利率可能已达到顶峰，如果经济如预期那样发展，今年晚些时候可能会有利率下调。https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=sGlJ6SmLh-I<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":308,"featured_media":158006,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[69,1032],"editors":[1080],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-158005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bi-te-bi","tag-bi-te-bietf","editors-allen-li"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitfinex\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u51cf\u534a\u540e\u6709\u671b\u4e0a\u6da8160%<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u6839\u636e4\u67088\u65e5 Bitfinex 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