{"id":135517,"date":"2024-01-27T05:00:48","date_gmt":"2024-01-27T05:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cn.cryptonews.com\/?p=135517"},"modified":"2024-01-26T19:42:10","modified_gmt":"2024-01-26T19:42:10","slug":"bitcoin-price-pushes-towards-42000-as-us-core-pce-inflation-data-eases-how-high-can-btc-go","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/bitcoin-price-pushes-towards-42000-as-us-core-pce-inflation-data-eases-how-high-can-btc-go\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u9010\u6e10\u4e0a\u5347\u81f342000\u7f8e\u5143\u3000\u7f8e\u56fd\u6838\u5fc3PCE\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u653e\u7f13\u3000BTC\u98d9\u5347\u52bf\u5934\u5982\u4f55\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

比特币（BTC）价格在经济数据显示美国通胀压力在2023年12月继续降至更可接受水平后，迎来了一轮周末的宽慰反弹。<\/p>

美国核心PCE物价指数数据显示，年同比通胀率降至2.9%，低于预期的3.0%。<\/p>

根据CoinMarketCap<\/a>的数据，比特币价格最近测试了42000美元，过去24小时上涨超过5%。<\/p>

\"\"<\/p>

核心PCE物价指数<\/a>是美联储在美国的首选衡量基础价格压力的指标。<\/p>

随着美国通胀趋势下降，这为美联储今年降息敞开了大门。<\/p>

较低的利率创造了一个更有利的流动性环境，有助于支持加密货币价格。<\/p>

这可能在一定程度上解释了为什么比特币价格自上周五美国市场开盘以来一直走高。\n<\/p>

美股市场的反弹和ETF资金流向推动比特币价格上涨？<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

\n根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的联邦储备观察工具<\/a>，美国利率期货市场的定价暗示，美联储可能在3月开始降息的概率略低于50%，与一周前持平。<\/p>

这表明，在最新的美国通胀数据公布后，宏观交易者并未大幅增加对美联储降息的赌注。<\/p>

通过观察传统资产市场，这一观点得到了进一步的证实。<\/p>

美元指数（DXY）在中103水平上基本持平，本周相对不变。<\/p>

美国10年期收益率在4.14%左右，本周基本持平。<\/p>

如果传统资产市场的叙述是对美联储降息预期的积累，人们预计这两者都会下降。<\/p>

比特币价格可能受益于美国股票价格的顺风。<\/p>

标普500指数持续刷新历史新高，目前超过4900点。<\/p>

积极的股票市场风险偏好可能会溢出到加密市场。<\/p>

来自BlackRock等资产管理公司的新推出的ETF持续吸引大量资金流入。<\/p>

事实上，上周五，BlackRock的iShares比特币信托基金（IBIT）<\/a>的资产管理规模超过了20亿美元。<\/p>

摩根大通<\/a>本周早些时候认为，Grayscale的GBTC的卖压“基本上已经结束” – 交易者在2023年一直以净资产值（NAV）折价购买GBTC，基于这一前提，他们认为它将转换为即期ETF，然后GBTC股份将直接以净资产值兑换比特币。<\/p>

本月早些时候，随着GBTC转换为即期比特币ETF，交易者纷纷利润了这笔成功的交易。<\/p>

但摩根大通认为，现在焦点转向了BlackRock的IBIT等新推出的ETF。<\/p>

假设这些基金的资金流入保持强劲，这可能会在未来支撑比特币价格。\n<\/p>

比特币价格能涨到多高？<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

\n尽管最新反弹，比特币价格仍然比其最近的高点49000美元左右下跌了约15%。<\/p>

最新的反弹表明，100日移动平均线和11月份的高点约38000美元都起到了强大的支撑作用。<\/p>

但比特币价格可能会在接近43000美元的21日和50日移动平均线附近遇到阻力。<\/p>

只有在比特币能够持续突破21日和50日移动平均线时，我们才能宣布市场动能再次明显偏向看涨。<\/p>

在这种情况下，重新测试年内高点49000美元左右是有可能的。<\/p>

\"Bitcoin
比特币（BTC）价格图表 \/ 来源：TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>
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\n

在未来几个月，焦点将逐渐转向比特币减半和美联储的降息。<\/p>\n

后者在历史上一直是比特币价格的重要长期利好催化剂。<\/p>\n

美联储的降息历来也对BTC产生了提振作用。<\/p>\n

2024年重新测试创纪录的69000美元的可能性仍然存在。<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

比特币（BTC）价格在经济数据显示美国通胀压力在2023年12月继续降至更可接受水平后，迎来了一轮周末的宽慰反弹。美国核心PCE物价指数数据显示，年同比通胀率降至2.9%，低于预期的3.0%。根据CoinMarketCap的数据，比特币价格最近测试了42000美元，过去24小时上涨超过5%。核心PCE物价指数是美联储在美国的首选衡量基础价格压力的指标。随着美国通胀趋势下降，这为美联储今年降息敞开了大门。较低的利率创造了一个更有利的流动性环境，有助于支持加密货币价格。这可能在一定程度上解释了为什么比特币价格自上周五美国市场开盘以来一直走高。 美股市场的反弹和ETF资金流向推动比特币价格上涨？ 根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的联邦储备观察工具，美国利率期货市场的定价暗示，美联储可能在3月开始降息的概率略低于50%，与一周前持平。这表明，在最新的美国通胀数据公布后，宏观交易者并未大幅增加对美联储降息的赌注。通过观察传统资产市场，这一观点得到了进一步的证实。美元指数（DXY）在中103水平上基本持平，本周相对不变。美国10年期收益率在4.14%左右，本周基本持平。如果传统资产市场的叙述是对美联储降息预期的积累，人们预计这两者都会下降。比特币价格可能受益于美国股票价格的顺风。标普500指数持续刷新历史新高，目前超过4900点。积极的股票市场风险偏好可能会溢出到加密市场。来自BlackRock等资产管理公司的新推出的ETF持续吸引大量资金流入。事实上，上周五，BlackRock的iShares比特币信托基金（IBIT）的资产管理规模超过了20亿美元。摩根大通本周早些时候认为，Grayscale的GBTC的卖压“基本上已经结束” – 交易者在2023年一直以净资产值（NAV）折价购买GBTC，基于这一前提，他们认为它将转换为即期ETF，然后GBTC股份将直接以净资产值兑换比特币。本月早些时候，随着GBTC转换为即期比特币ETF，交易者纷纷利润了这笔成功的交易。但摩根大通认为，现在焦点转向了BlackRock的IBIT等新推出的ETF。假设这些基金的资金流入保持强劲，这可能会在未来支撑比特币价格。 比特币价格能涨到多高？ 尽管最新反弹，比特币价格仍然比其最近的高点49000美元左右下跌了约15%。最新的反弹表明，100日移动平均线和11月份的高点约38000美元都起到了强大的支撑作用。但比特币价格可能会在接近43000美元的21日和50日移动平均线附近遇到阻力。只有在比特币能够持续突破21日和50日移动平均线时，我们才能宣布市场动能再次明显偏向看涨。在这种情况下，重新测试年内高点49000美元左右是有可能的。比特币（BTC）价格图表 \/ 来源：TradingView 在未来几个月，焦点将逐渐转向比特币减半和美联储的降息。 后者在历史上一直是比特币价格的重要长期利好催化剂。 美联储的降息历来也对BTC产生了提振作用。 2024年重新测试创纪录的69000美元的可能性仍然存在。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":237,"featured_media":135519,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[63,191,489,68,67,69,444],"editors":[1055],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-135517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-jia-mi-jia-ge","tag-jia-mi-huo-bi","tag-qu-kuai-lian","tag-bi-te-bi","tag-bi-te-bi-jia-ge","editors-esther-hui"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u9010\u6e10\u4e0a\u5347\u81f342000\u7f8e\u5143\u3000\u7f8e\u56fd\u6838\u5fc3PCE\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u653e\u7f13<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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