{"id":127880,"date":"2024-01-04T07:00:43","date_gmt":"2024-01-04T07:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cn.cryptonews.com\/?p=127880"},"modified":"2024-01-03T20:10:51","modified_gmt":"2024-01-03T20:10:51","slug":"bitcoin-etf-is-fully-priced-in-argues-analyst-glen-goodman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/bitcoin-etf-is-fully-priced-in-argues-analyst-glen-goodman\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u683c\u4f26\u00b7\u53e4\u5fb7\u66fc\uff1a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01ETF\u5df2\u5145\u5206\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u4ef7\u683c\u4e2d"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
格伦·古德曼（Glen Goodman）。来源：视频截图，Cryptonites TV \/ YouTube<\/figcaption><\/figure>

\n在最近的一次采访中，《加密交易者》作者、分析师格伦·古德曼（ Glen Goodman）讨论了现货比特币<\/a>交易所交易基金(ETF<\/a>)是否已经在价格中反映，以及如果“未知因素”盖瑞·根斯勒（Gary Gensler）决定推迟，可能会发生什么情况。<\/p>

市场迫切期待美国证券交易委员会（SEC）对批准比特币ETF的决定。<\/p>

在周二接受彭博采访时<\/a>，古德曼认为几乎每个人都已经“接受了”ETF即将到来的观点。<\/p>

他表示：\n<\/p>

“就它是否已经在价格中反映，我会说它可能已经相当充分地反映在价格中。”<\/p><\/blockquote>

\n但他认为存在一种输赢难题。如果批准确实到来，那么已经在价格中反映了，但如果没有呢，会发生什么？\n<\/p>

盖瑞·根斯勒（Gary Gensler）：比特币ETF批准的未知因素<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

\n在讨论美国证券交易委员会主席盖瑞·根斯勒（Gary Gensler）在加强对加密行业监管方面的偏好时，古德曼表示：“确实！这是我认为人们在这里忽视的一个因素。”<\/p>

他暗示说，人们不应低估根斯勒对一切加密事务的不喜好。<\/p>

有一些积极的迹象可能表明批准已经板上钉钉。这包括最近SEC官员与ETF申请者之间的会谈<\/a>。\n<\/p>

“但盖瑞·根斯勒，我们知道，他对加密从来没有什么好话，对吧？所以他是所有这一切中的未知因素。而且坦白说，他是老板。”<\/p><\/blockquote>

\n古德曼认为，根斯勒可能会要求申请者做更多的工作，这可能会推迟批准。<\/p>

举例来说，古德曼提到了数字资产托管公司BitGo<\/a><\/strong>的史蒂夫·斯科特（ Steve Scott）和AJ Nary最近讨论过<\/a>的交易所的托管和交易分离。\n<\/p>

情况可能变糟<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

\n当被问及如果不久后没有批准，比特币可能会下跌多少时，古德曼表示：\n<\/p>

“如果我们从[SEC]那里得到的印象是，推迟是无限期的，而不仅仅是‘哦，我们只是想做一些最后的事情’，那情况可能会很糟。”<\/p><\/blockquote>

\n比特币，如以前所见，有能力经历“绝对可怕的下跌”，将几个月的收益抹去。<\/p>

古德曼表示，在加密交易所的期货资金费率方面，“水平相当高涨”。现在有很多人借了很多钱来购买比特币。<\/p>

因此，如果价格开始下跌，可能会出现多空账户被清算的连锁反应，因为人们在“旧的杠杆上”过度拉伸了自己。<\/p>

尽管他个人没有出售，但古德曼在长时间保持多头仓位后“减轻了”自己的持仓。<\/p>

价格可能会继续受到ETF的影响——假设它得到批准。然而，他认为，“在这个水平上，风险回报看起来并不那么好。”<\/p>

他强调，这只是一个短期的理论。比特币以其迅速下跌然后迅速反弹的能力而闻名。<\/p>

从长远来看，比特币ETF的批准是“极好的消息”，正如许多专家所指出的那样。<\/p>

与此同时，古德曼认为，2024年的其他推动因素包括游戏<\/a>、人工智能（AI<\/a>）和去中心化社交媒体<\/a>。<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

格伦·古德曼&#65288 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":237,"featured_media":127883,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[1321,98,507,68,67,1032],"editors":[1055],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-127880","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-etf","tag-market","tag-sec","tag-jia-mi-huo-bi","tag-qu-kuai-lian","tag-bi-te-bietf","editors-esther-hui"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u683c\u4f26\u00b7\u53e4\u5fb7\u66fc\uff1a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01ETF\u5df2\u5145\u5206\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u4ef7\u683c\u4e2d<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u91c7\u8bbf\u4e2d\uff0c\u300a\u52a0\u5bc6\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u300b\u4f5c\u8005\u3001\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u683c\u4f26\u00b7\u53e4\u5fb7\u66fc\uff08 Glen 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