{"id":127785,"date":"2024-01-03T14:09:42","date_gmt":"2024-01-03T14:09:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cn.cryptonews.com\/?p=127785"},"modified":"2024-01-03T20:53:06","modified_gmt":"2024-01-03T20:53:06","slug":"matrixport-bao-gaosec-yi-yue-jiang-ju-jue-bi-te-bi-xian-huoetf-tong-guo-tou-zi-zhe-ke-kao-lu-zuo-kong-zhi36000mei-yuan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/matrixport-bao-gaosec-yi-yue-jiang-ju-jue-bi-te-bi-xian-huoetf-tong-guo-tou-zi-zhe-ke-kao-lu-zuo-kong-zhi36000mei-yuan\/","title":{"rendered":"Matrixport\u62a5\u544a\uff1aSEC\u4e00\u6708\u5c06\u62d2\u7edd\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u73b0\u8d27ETF\u901a\u8fc7\u3000\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u505a\u7a7a\u81f336,000\u7f8e\u5143"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Matrixport报告：SEC一月将拒绝比特币现货ETF通过<\/p>

根据Matrixport<\/a>发表一份的报告，预计美国证券交易委员会(SEC) 将在一月份拒绝所有比特币现货交易所交易基金(ETF)，更建议如在1月5日前未有最新消息，或可以考虑做空，如届时SEC真的拒绝现货ETF的通过，比特币的价格将下跌至36,000 美元至38,000 美元的范围。\n<\/p>

\"Matrixport报告：SEC一月将拒绝比特币现货ETF通过<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

预计2024年第二季比特币现货ETF才通過<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

\nMatrix on Target在2023年对市场的看法一直是看涨的，这与共识预期相反。他们在年初预测比特币可能在圣诞节前达到45,000美元。他们甚至预期，如果比特币现货ETF满足所有美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的要求，比特币可能在2024年1月底前攀升至50,000美元。虽然我们看到ETF申请者与SEC工作人员之间频繁的会面，导致申请者重新提交了他们的申请，但我们认为所有申请都未满足SEC批准前必须达到的一个关键要求。这可能会在2024年第二季度得到满足，但我们预计SEC将在1月拒绝所有提案。\n<\/p>

SEC主席Gensler成最大阻力<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

\n目前五人组成的SEC投票委员会，对ETF批准至关重要，由民主党人主导。 SEC主席Gensler并不支持美国的加密货币，甚至期望他投票批准比特币现货ETF可能是非常遥远的。 ETF无疑会使整个加密货币行业起飞，但根据Gensler在2023年12月的评论，他仍然认为这个行业需要更严格的合规。从政治角度来看，没有理由批准一个将比特币合法化为另一种价值储存方式的比特币现货ETF。<\/p>

自从交易者在2023年9月开始押注ETF批准以来，至少有140亿美元的额外法币和杠杆被投入到加密货币中。这些资金流可能与宏观条件的放松有关，因为美联储已转向鸽派。然而，在这140亿美元的额外多头中，可能有100亿美元与ETF批准的预期有关。\n<\/p>

SEC一旦拒绝比特币将下跌20％<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

\n如果SEC有任何拒绝，我们可能会看到连锁清算，因为我们预计大部分51亿美元的额外永续多头比特币期货将被解除。我们可能会看到比特币价格迅速下跌-20%，回落到36,000\/38,000美元区间。\n<\/p>

1月5日为关键点<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

\n假设市场参与者在2024年1月5日星期五之前没有听说任何批准消息。在这种情况下，Matrix on Target建议交易者通过购买1月底到期的40,000美元行权价的看跌期权来对冲他们的多头敞口，甚至可以通过期权直接做空比特币。<\/p>

即使SEC否决了ETF，我们仍然预计比特币的价格在2024年底会高于年初时的42,000美元，因为美国选举年和比特币挖矿年往往是正面的。<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

根据Matrixport发表一份的报告，预计美国证券交易委员会(SEC) 将在一月份拒绝所有比特币现货交易所交易基金(ETF)，更建议如在1月5日前未有最新消息，或可以考虑做空，如届时SEC真的拒绝现货ETF的通过，比特币的价格将下跌至36,000 美元至38,000 美元的范围。 预计2024年第二季比特币现货ETF才通過 Matrix on Target在2023年对市场的看法一直是看涨的，这与共识预期相反。他们在年初预测比特币可能在圣诞节前达到45,000美元。他们甚至预期，如果比特币现货ETF满足所有美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的要求，比特币可能在2024年1月底前攀升至50,000美元。虽然我们看到ETF申请者与SEC工作人员之间频繁的会面，导致申请者重新提交了他们的申请，但我们认为所有申请都未满足SEC批准前必须达到的一个关键要求。这可能会在2024年第二季度得到满足，但我们预计SEC将在1月拒绝所有提案。 SEC主席Gensler成最大阻力 目前五人组成的SEC投票委员会，对ETF批准至关重要，由民主党人主导。 SEC主席Gensler并不支持美国的加密货币，甚至期望他投票批准比特币现货ETF可能是非常遥远的。 ETF无疑会使整个加密货币行业起飞，但根据Gensler在2023年12月的评论，他仍然认为这个行业需要更严格的合规。从政治角度来看，没有理由批准一个将比特币合法化为另一种价值储存方式的比特币现货ETF。自从交易者在2023年9月开始押注ETF批准以来，至少有140亿美元的额外法币和杠杆被投入到加密货币中。这些资金流可能与宏观条件的放松有关，因为美联储已转向鸽派。然而，在这140亿美元的额外多头中，可能有100亿美元与ETF批准的预期有关。 SEC一旦拒绝比特币将下跌20％ 如果SEC有任何拒绝，我们可能会看到连锁清算，因为我们预计大部分51亿美元的额外永续多头比特币期货将被解除。我们可能会看到比特币价格迅速下跌-20%，回落到36,000\/38,000美元区间。 1月5日为关键点 假设市场参与者在2024年1月5日星期五之前没有听说任何批准消息。在这种情况下，Matrix on Target建议交易者通过购买1月底到期的40,000美元行权价的看跌期权来对冲他们的多头敞口，甚至可以通过期权直接做空比特币。即使SEC否决了ETF，我们仍然预计比特币的价格在2024年底会高于年初时的42,000美元，因为美国选举年和比特币挖矿年往往是正面的。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":308,"featured_media":127787,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[507,69,1254],"editors":[1080],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-127785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news","tag-sec","tag-bi-te-bi","tag-xian-huoetf","editors-allen-li"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMatrixport\u62a5\u544a\uff1aSEC\u4e00\u6708\u5c06\u62d2\u7edd\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u73b0\u8d27ETF\u901a\u8fc7<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u6839\u636eMatrixport \u53d1\u8868\u4e00\u4efd\u7684\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(SEC) 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