{"id":113742,"date":"2023-11-12T05:00:54","date_gmt":"2023-11-12T05:00:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cn.cryptonews.com\/?p=113742"},"modified":"2023-11-11T21:26:02","modified_gmt":"2023-11-11T21:26:02","slug":"bitcoin-price-prediction-as-20-billion-sends-btc-toward-40000-has-the-bull-market-started","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/bitcoin-price-prediction-as-20-billion-sends-btc-toward-40000-has-the-bull-market-started\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u9884\u6d4b\u3000200\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u63a8\u52a8BTC\u8d70\u54114\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3000\u725b\u5e02\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) 图表\/来源: TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>

\n比特币（BTC）的多头在周六稍事休息，这一加密货币在年初曾印制近38,000美元的最高价附近横盘，目前BTC的最新交易价格约为37,150美元。\n<\/p>

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随着交易者消化关于未来美国现货比特币ETF批准的乐观情绪以及投资者为美联储收紧周期结束而调整仓位<\/a>，比特币本周将迎来约6%的强劲涨幅。<\/p>\n

这将标志着比特币<\/a>连续第四个绿色周，自10月中旬的26,000美元左右的低点以来，该加密货币已上涨了惊人的40%。<\/p>\n

事实上，最近的涨势让比特币<\/a>有望迎来自一月以来最强劲的四周涨幅，当时比特币从不到17,000美元上涨了42%，至将近24,000美元。<\/p>\n

有传言称，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）可能在一月批准一批现货比特币ETF，因此这一主题的新闻将在可预见的未来继续成为市场的重要推动因素。<\/p>\n

但宏观事件也可能继续受到关注。<\/p>\n

下周将发布美国十月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）和零售销售数据，如果像最新的美国就业<\/a>和制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）数据<\/a>一样乐观，可能会增加市场对美联储紧缩周期结束<\/a>并很快开始降息周期的投注。<\/p>\n

这可能会对美国政府债券收益率产生下行压力，支持美国股票价格，考虑到美国股票与加密货币之间的历史正相关性以及美国收益率与加密货币之间的负相关性，这可能会为加密货币提供新的迎风而上的动力。<\/p>\n

当然，强劲的数据可能会引发相反的反应，特别是考虑到最近美联储的言辞仍然偏鹰派<\/a>，似乎试图说服市场，让进一步加息的可能性仍然存在。<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>

价格预测 – 比特币（BTC）价格何去何从？<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

\n如果美国通胀数据向上惊喜，美国零售销售数据反击了Q3令人惊讶的激增后对美国经济在Q4放缓的担忧，比特币可能面临短期回调的风险，最高可达5%。<\/p>

这一加密货币最近突破了短期上升趋势通道的上方，但很容易滑回该通道，甚至回到底部以测试其21日移动平均线（DMA），该线目前约为34,750美元。<\/p>

\"Bitcoin
比特币（BTC）图表 \/ 数据来源：TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>
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值得注意的是，尽管最近几个月美国收益率创下数十年来的高位，美国股票出现下调，比特币表现出色，尤其是在10月份强劲反弹。<\/p>\n

任何由宏观因素驱动的调整可能是短暂的，尤其是由于比特币特定的乐观情绪，如即将到来的现货ETF批准和2024年的减半活动<\/a>，引发了如此多的兴奋。<\/p>\n

价格预测<\/a>将保持看涨。<\/p>\n

图表分析表明，随着比特币已经明确突破32,000美元-34,000美元左右的阻力区，向2022年的高点48,000美元迎来一轮反弹的可能性较大。<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>

\"Bitcoin
比特币涨至48,000美元？<\/figcaption><\/figure>

牛市已经开始了吗？<\/h2>

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\n投资者在谈论股市中的牛市时，通常的定义是当市场相对于最近的低点上涨20%时，它已经进入了牛市。<\/p>

按照这个定义，比特币的牛市早在一月的第二周就已经确认。<\/p>

当然，加密货币价格，包括比特币，比股市指数如标普500更加波动。<\/p>

但考虑到比特币相对于2022年低点在15,000美元左右的涨幅超过140%，很难反驳比特币不处于新牛市的观点。<\/p>

首先，比特币几乎完美地遵循着其传统市场周期的步伐，其中它经历了一年的激烈回调（如2014年、2018年和2022年），然后开始了为期三年的牛市，达到新的历史最高点。<\/p>

看起来比特币已经进入了新的三年牛市周期的第一年。<\/p>

对比特币典型市场周期的这一分析，Trading.biz分析师科里·米切尔（Cory Mitchell）在本周早些时候与加密媒体成员共享的一份备忘中写道，比特币可能在2024年中旬就进入他所称的“加速阶段”。<\/p>

米切尔解释说，比特币的“真正大幅涨幅”通常在价格触底一年半后出现，这指向了比特币在2022年11月触底后可能在2024年中旬左右迎来涨势。<\/p>

“2013年，比特币在大约100天内上涨了1200%……2017年，在将近一年的时间里上涨了1900%……在2020年底，它在大约140天内上涨了400%”。<\/p>

他指出：“一旦启动，比特币的上升趋势往往迅速，通常在不到一年的时间内上涨数百个百分点”，并预测比特币可能在明年年中迎来约69,000美元的历史最高点。<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin (BTC) 图表\/来源: Tradin […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":237,"featured_media":113744,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[63,191,439,489,68,67,69,1032,841],"editors":[1055],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-113742","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-jia-ge-yu-ce","tag-jia-mi-jia-ge","tag-jia-mi-huo-bi","tag-qu-kuai-lian","tag-bi-te-bi","tag-bi-te-bietf","tag-niu-shi","editors-esther-hui"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n200\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u63a8\u52a8BTC\u8d70\u54114\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3000\u725b\u5e02\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\uff1f<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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