{"id":111484,"date":"2023-11-04T07:00:12","date_gmt":"2023-11-04T07:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cn.cryptonews.com\/?p=111484"},"modified":"2023-11-03T21:24:24","modified_gmt":"2023-11-03T21:24:24","slug":"bitcoin-bounces-as-us-jobs-market-slows-where-next-for-the-btc-price","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/bitcoin-bounces-as-us-jobs-market-slows-where-next-for-the-btc-price\/","title":{"rendered":"\u968f\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u653e\u7f13\u3000\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u53cd\u5f39\u3000\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u672a\u6765\u4f55\u53bb\u4f55\u4ece\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) 图表\/ 来源: TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>

\n周五早些时候公布的经济数据显示，美国10月份就业市场的放缓超出预期<\/a>，导致美国国债收益率下跌，美国股市和比特币<\/a>（BTC）价格上涨，比特币最后交投在约34,600美元左右。<\/p>

最新的就业报告显示，美国经济上个月增加了15万个工作岗位，低于预期的18万个，并标志着自2021年初以来就业增长的最慢步伐。<\/p>

宏观投资者对这一数据做出反应，减少了对美国联邦储备委员会将实施一次进一步加息的押注，正如该委员会在本周早些时候所警告的那样。<\/p>

根据芝加哥商品交易所的联邦储备观测工具<\/a>，美国货币市场暗示，美联储将在2024年1月之前再次加息25个基点的概率从周四的26%下降至周五的10%左右。<\/p>

美联储将在2024年底前至少削减100个基点的加息概率从一天前的40%多上升至65%左右。\n<\/p>

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最新的美国就业数据还显示，美国失业率意外上升到3.9%，而预期为3.8%，月度工资增长的速度意外放缓至0.2%，而预期为0.3%。<\/p>\n

美联储自2022年初开始积极加息，以对抗自2021年中期以来美国通货膨胀出乎意料的强劲增长。<\/p>\n

虽然美国通货膨胀率已取得了良好的进展，接近美联储的2.0%目标，但2023年美国经济的强劲表现和劳动力市场的韧性使这一任务变得复杂化。<\/p>\n

在过去两个月里，美国就业报告超出预期，周五的就业数据证实，美国劳动力市场的逐渐疲软趋势仍然存在，降低了美联储进一步加息的压力，以及保持较高利率的时间。<\/p>\n

这就是为什么投资者对美联储进一步加息的押注降低，提高了美联储将何时开始降息的押注。<\/p>\n

当投资者降低他们对美联储加息幅度的预期时，美国政府债券收益率往往会下降。<\/p>\n

这往往会提高股市的风险偏好，以及比特币<\/a>和黄金等无收益资产的价格，因为较低的收益意味着减少持有美国债券的动力，而美国债券被认为是无风险资产。<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>

比特币（BTC）价格未来走势如何？<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

\n尽管在当前的34,600美元左右，BTC相对于此前的低点上涨了1.5%，但这家全球市值最大的加密货币在本次交易中仍下跌了约0.75%。<\/p>

在周四触及近年来的高点约36,000美元后，比特币正在迎来获利了结，短期投机者在比特币自10月低点以来上涨超过30%后获利了结。<\/p>

这次上涨主要是因为人们对美国即将批准现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）<\/a>充满了乐观情绪。<\/p>

尽管目前获利了结令BTC受到阻力，但牛市可能很快会重新掌控，因为宏观背景的变化将使BTC成为尾风而不是逆风。<\/p>

最近10年期美国政府债券的收益率，最后略高于4.5%，已下跌了约40个基点，美元指数（DXY）已贬值超过1.5%，自月初以来标普500指数上涨了超过4%，因为交易员们押注美国利率已经触顶，未来将出现更宽松的金融条件。<\/p>

如果这一趋势持续下去，这将成为BTC的一个主要中期尾风。<\/p>

尽管图表分析表明，重新测试以前年度高点的31,800美元左右仍然是可能的，但预计回调将相对短暂。<\/p>

40,000美元仍然是2023年年底之前的目标。<\/p>

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) 图表\/ 来源: TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>
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加密分析公司Matrixport甚至预测，圣诞节涨幅可能会将比特币推高至年底的56,000美元。<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin (BTC) 图表\/ 来源: TradingView 周五早些时候公布的经济数据显示，美国10月份就业市场的放缓超出预期，导致美国国债收益率下跌，美国股市和比特币（BTC）价格上涨，比特币最后交投在约34,600美元左右。最新的就业报告显示，美国经济上个月增加了15万个工作岗位，低于预期的18万个，并标志着自2021年初以来就业增长的最慢步伐。宏观投资者对这一数据做出反应，减少了对美国联邦储备委员会将实施一次进一步加息的押注，正如该委员会在本周早些时候所警告的那样。根据芝加哥商品交易所的联邦储备观测工具，美国货币市场暗示，美联储将在2024年1月之前再次加息25个基点的概率从周四的26%下降至周五的10%左右。美联储将在2024年底前至少削减100个基点的加息概率从一天前的40%多上升至65%左右。 最新的美国就业数据还显示，美国失业率意外上升到3.9%，而预期为3.8%，月度工资增长的速度意外放缓至0.2%，而预期为0.3%。 美联储自2022年初开始积极加息，以对抗自2021年中期以来美国通货膨胀出乎意料的强劲增长。 虽然美国通货膨胀率已取得了良好的进展，接近美联储的2.0%目标，但2023年美国经济的强劲表现和劳动力市场的韧性使这一任务变得复杂化。 在过去两个月里，美国就业报告超出预期，周五的就业数据证实，美国劳动力市场的逐渐疲软趋势仍然存在，降低了美联储进一步加息的压力，以及保持较高利率的时间。 这就是为什么投资者对美联储进一步加息的押注降低，提高了美联储将何时开始降息的押注。 当投资者降低他们对美联储加息幅度的预期时，美国政府债券收益率往往会下降。 这往往会提高股市的风险偏好，以及比特币和黄金等无收益资产的价格，因为较低的收益意味着减少持有美国债券的动力，而美国债券被认为是无风险资产。 比特币（BTC）价格未来走势如何？ 尽管在当前的34,600美元左右，BTC相对于此前的低点上涨了1.5%，但这家全球市值最大的加密货币在本次交易中仍下跌了约0.75%。在周四触及近年来的高点约36,000美元后，比特币正在迎来获利了结，短期投机者在比特币自10月低点以来上涨超过30%后获利了结。这次上涨主要是因为人们对美国即将批准现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）充满了乐观情绪。尽管目前获利了结令BTC受到阻力，但牛市可能很快会重新掌控，因为宏观背景的变化将使BTC成为尾风而不是逆风。最近10年期美国政府债券的收益率，最后略高于4.5%，已下跌了约40个基点，美元指数（DXY）已贬值超过1.5%，自月初以来标普500指数上涨了超过4%，因为交易员们押注美国利率已经触顶，未来将出现更宽松的金融条件。如果这一趋势持续下去，这将成为BTC的一个主要中期尾风。尽管图表分析表明，重新测试以前年度高点的31,800美元左右仍然是可能的，但预计回调将相对短暂。40,000美元仍然是2023年年底之前的目标。Bitcoin (BTC) 图表\/ 来源: TradingView 加密分析公司Matrixport甚至预测，圣诞节涨幅可能会将比特币推高至年底的56,000美元。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":237,"featured_media":111486,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[63,191,489,68,67,69,444,640],"editors":[1055],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-111484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-jia-mi-jia-ge","tag-jia-mi-huo-bi","tag-qu-kuai-lian","tag-bi-te-bi","tag-bi-te-bi-jia-ge","tag-mei-guo","editors-esther-hui"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u968f\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u653e\u7f13\u3000\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u53cd\u5f39\u3000\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u672a\u6765\u4f55\u53bb\u4f55\u4ece\uff1f<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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