{"id":108845,"date":"2023-10-29T01:00:58","date_gmt":"2023-10-29T01:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cn.cryptonews.com\/?p=108845"},"modified":"2023-10-28T19:32:18","modified_gmt":"2023-10-28T19:32:18","slug":"bitcoin-etf-speculation-sustains-bitcoin-price-how-long-will-it-last","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/bitcoin-etf-speculation-sustains-bitcoin-price-how-long-will-it-last\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01ETF\u7092\u4f5c\u7ef4\u7cfb\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u3000\u6301\u7eed\u591a\u4e45\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"Bitcoin
比特币价格因ETF传闻飙升，但实用性和采用率将推动长期增长。图片由 Klemenso<\/a>，Adobe Stock提供<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/blockquote>

比特币价格<\/strong><\/p>

近几周，比特币价格出现了相当大的波动，主要是由于围绕美国证券交易委员会（SEC）可能批准比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的猜测所驱动。虽然比特币支持者对ETF前景的每一则新传闻都感到高兴，但是否仅基于ETF猜测和炒作可以在长期内维持重大价格增长，仍然存在争议。\n<\/p>

比特币价格因ETF猜测而短期上涨<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

\n上周，比特币价格因未经证实的传闻，即SEC已批准了来自黑石集团的现货比特币ETF，而在10月16日的一天内上涨了10%。<\/a>传闻事后被证明是虚假的，一旦交易者意识到实际的ETF批准尚未发生，比特币价格就从其短暂的高点回落。<\/p>

本周，根据有关SEC最终准备允许现货比特币ETF的报告<\/a>，比特币经历了类似的两位数百分比价格提升，潜在批准可能在年底前获得。<\/p>

这一情节的出现激发了比特币交易者的兴奋，帮助这种加密货币自2023年初以来价值上涨超过100%。然而，比特币仍远低于其2021年11月达到的近69,000美元的历史最高水平。<\/p>

突发新闻：有传言称预计将在24小时内批准一只 #比特币<\/a>ETF。<\/p>

— BITCOINLFG® (@bitcoinlfgo) 2023年10月27日\n<\/p>

比特币期货ETF发布的教训<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

\n现在的关键问题是，如果比特币ETF的批准仍然难以实现，这种势头会持续多久。一旦期待已久的ETF最终推出，最初的热情逐渐消退，支持减弱和炒作逐渐减弱的风险显然存在。<\/p>

通过考察比特币期货ETF在2021年发布后市场的反应<\/a>，我们可以得到一些见解。许多交易者预期这些ETF将大大促进主流采用<\/a>。然而，需求主要集中在第一个期货ETF内，使得随后的基金难以吸引类似的兴趣。<\/p>

这一次，像黑石集团、英富仕和富达等主要参与者将积极竞争首个备受追捧<\/a>的现货比特币ETF。然而，最终的获胜者可能会发现，大部分积压的需求在早期就被耗尽了。\n<\/p>

在ETF催化剂之外维持势头<\/h2>

<\/span><\/p>

\n增加不确定性的是，与2021年相比，比特币今天面临着更加谨慎的宏观环境。近期，美国国债收益率上升<\/a>，全球市场普遍的避险情绪<\/a>以及关于山姆·班克曼-弗里德（ Sam Bankman-Fried<\/strong>）的审判的负面头条都给加密货币带来了严峻的逆风。<\/p>

即使像温克莱姆姐妹这样非常成功的加密货币投资者也卷入了混乱的法律斗争<\/a>。<\/p>

总之，虽然由比特币ETF炒作驱动的短期价格暴涨似乎有望继续，但一旦ETF最终推出，这些收益是否能在长期内持续下去仍然不确定。尽管SEC的批准对于潜在的价格暴涨来说令人兴奋，但过于依赖单一叙事可能会使比特币投资者脆弱。那些早期进入市场的人可能可以承受这一风险，但对于其他人来说，保守可能是明智的选择。最终，比特币的价格将更多地依赖于其随着时间推移的实际用途和采用情况，而不是监管催化剂。<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

比特币价格因ETF&#20 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":237,"featured_media":108847,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[489,414,68,67,69,1032,444],"editors":[1055],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-108845","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news","tag-jia-mi-jia-ge","tag-jia-mi-shi-chang","tag-jia-mi-huo-bi","tag-qu-kuai-lian","tag-bi-te-bi","tag-bi-te-bietf","tag-bi-te-bi-jia-ge","editors-esther-hui"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01ETF\u7092\u4f5c\u7ef4\u7cfb\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u3000\u6301\u7eed\u591a\u4e45\uff1f<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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