{"id":104931,"date":"2023-04-20T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-20T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cn.cryptonews.com\/?p=110821"},"modified":"2023-06-26T11:26:41","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T11:26:41","slug":"you-yi-xiang-guang-fan-shou-guan-zhu-de-ji-shu-zhi-biao-suo-tou-lu-dang-qian-bi-te-bi-zheng-chu-yu-xin-niu-shi-de-zao-qi-jie-duan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/you-yi-xiang-guang-fan-shou-guan-zhu-de-ji-shu-zhi-biao-suo-tou-lu-dang-qian-bi-te-bi-zheng-chu-yu-xin-niu-shi-de-zao-qi-jie-duan\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7531\u4e00\u9879\u5e7f\u6cdb\u53d7\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u6280\u672f\u6307\u6807\u6240\u900f\u9732\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u65b0\u725b\u5e02\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u9636\u6bb5"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>

比特币<\/strong><\/a>目前正处于新牛市的早期阶段。这是根据对市场价值与实现价值比率或 MVRV 比率的一项广泛采用的技术指标所分析得出的。<\/strong><\/p>

这个比率是透过将<\/strong>比特币<\/strong><\/a>的当前市值除以其以实际价格计算的市值 (即每个比特币代币最后移动的平均价格) 所计算得出的，最近此一比率达到 1.48，这是自去年 4 月以来的最高水平。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

今年 1 月，它自 2022 年 11 月以来首次回升至 1 以上，并且鉴于<\/strong>比特币<\/strong><\/a>价格的持续上涨，该比率至今也都一直在上升。<\/strong><\/p>

从上图中可以看出，MVRV 比率低于 1.0 至今在历史上都发生在<\/strong>比特币<\/strong><\/a>熊市的后期。<\/strong><\/p>

事实上，从历史上看，该指数持续回升至 1.0 以上一直是一个很好的买入信号，因为它显示比特币已进入牛市的早期阶段。<\/strong><\/p>

现在看来确实是这样。<\/strong><\/p>

MRVR Z-数值 发送更具说服力的牛市信号<\/strong><\/h2><\/span>

Glassnode 所偏好监控的 MVRV 相关指标是 MVRV 比率的 Z 数值。<\/strong><\/p>

他们透过从已实现市值中减去比特币的市值，然后除以比特币整个历史市值的标准差来计算出这一个数值。<\/strong><\/p>

该 Z 数值在周一最后一次为 0.71 左右，今年早些时候随着比特币价格回升而反弹至零以上。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

在通常的情况下，正如我们目前所看到的那样，从零以下水平持续复苏至今都恰逢比特币牛市的早期阶段。<\/strong><\/p>

本次的牛市 BTC 价格能涨多高？<\/strong><\/h2><\/span>

假设新的比特币牛市已经开始，长期投资者现在将评估未来几年价格会上涨多高，因为他们会评估在什么水平来获取利润。<\/strong><\/p>

MVRV 比率可用于确定市场何时过热以及何时可能出现一个价格顶部。<\/strong><\/p>

从第一张图表中可以看出，MVRV 比率飙升至 3 至 4 水平以上，至今在历史上都与牛市最激烈的阶段相吻合，并且通常都会出现在持续的价格下跌之前。<\/strong><\/p>

Glassnode 提供了一个有用的图表，该图表绘制了当前的比特币价格以及显示价格在特定 MRVR 比率下之位置的线条。<\/strong><\/p>

截至 4 月 17 日星期一，如果 MVRV 比率为 2.4，则价格约为 47,700 美元，如果为 3.2，则价格约为 63.600 美元。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

如果比特币的价格处于这些水平，那么可以说市场目前非常火爆。<\/strong><\/p>

但值得注意的是，过去的牛市与实际价格的急剧上涨同时发生，因为越来越多的投资者进入市场，为代币所支付的费用高于以往历史上的额度。<\/strong><\/p>

随着已实现价格的上涨，这会推高 MVRV 比率区间。<\/strong><\/p>

例如，在 2020 年末到 2021 年上半年的牛市中，实际价格从 6,000 美元左右增加到近 20,000 美元，涨了三倍多。<\/strong><\/p>

这也将 2.4 和 3.2 MVRV 比率区间推高了三倍，大致与当前水平 (约 47,000 美元和 63,000 美元) 一致。<\/strong><\/p>

如果我们处于新的比特币牛市中，几乎可以肯定实现价格在未来几个季度和几年会持续上涨，这也将推高 2.4 和 3.2 MVRV 比率区间。<\/strong><\/p>

会推高多少？没有人能确定。<\/strong><\/p>

但假设它比当前水平高出 3 倍，就像在最近的牛市期间一样。<\/strong><\/p>

这将使 2.4 MVRV 比率区间进入 14 至 15 万美元的区域。<\/strong><\/p>

与此同时，3.2 MVRV 比率区间将升至 19 万美元左右。<\/strong><\/p>

这显示，在我们开始将涨势标记为危险过热之前，我们可能会在未来几年看到比特币价格上涨至 10 万美元以上。<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

比特币目前正处于新牛市的早期阶段。这是根据对市场价值与实现价值比率或 MVRV 比率的一项广泛采用的技术指标所分析得出的。这个比率是透过将比特币的当前市值除以其以实际价格计算的市值 (即每个比特币代币最后移动的平均价格) 所计算得出的，最近此一比率达到 1.48，这是自去年 4 月以来的最高水平。今年 1 月，它自 2022 年 11 月以来首次回升至 1 以上，并且鉴于比特币价格的持续上涨，该比率至今也都一直在上升。从上图中可以看出，MVRV 比率低于 1.0 至今在历史上都发生在比特币熊市的后期。事实上，从历史上看，该指数持续回升至 1.0 以上一直是一个很好的买入信号，因为它显示比特币已进入牛市的早期阶段。现在看来确实是这样。MRVR Z-数值 发送更具说服力的牛市信号Glassnode 所偏好监控的 MVRV 相关指标是 MVRV 比率的 Z 数值。他们透过从已实现市值中减去比特币的市值，然后除以比特币整个历史市值的标准差来计算出这一个数值。该 Z 数值在周一最后一次为 0.71 左右，今年早些时候随着比特币价格回升而反弹至零以上。在通常的情况下，正如我们目前所看到的那样，从零以下水平持续复苏至今都恰逢比特币牛市的早期阶段。本次的牛市 BTC 价格能涨多高？假设新的比特币牛市已经开始，长期投资者现在将评估未来几年价格会上涨多高，因为他们会评估在什么水平来获取利润。MVRV 比率可用于确定市场何时过热以及何时可能出现一个价格顶部。从第一张图表中可以看出，MVRV 比率飙升至 3 至 4 水平以上，至今在历史上都与牛市最激烈的阶段相吻合，并且通常都会出现在持续的价格下跌之前。Glassnode 提供了一个有用的图表，该图表绘制了当前的比特币价格以及显示价格在特定 MRVR 比率下之位置的线条。截至 4 月 17 日星期一，如果 MVRV 比率为 2.4，则价格约为 47,700 美元，如果为 3.2，则价格约为 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