{"id":104831,"date":"2023-03-27T05:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-27T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cn.cryptonews.com\/?p=108677"},"modified":"2023-06-26T11:26:42","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T11:26:42","slug":"jin-guan-bi-te-bi-de-die-shi-ke-neng-shi-qi-jia-ge-hui-luo-zhi-zhe-yi-guan-jian-de-zhi-cheng-qu-yu-dan-btc-jia-ge-de-zhang-qi-qian-jing-yi-ran-qiang-jin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/jin-guan-bi-te-bi-de-die-shi-ke-neng-shi-qi-jia-ge-hui-luo-zhi-zhe-yi-guan-jian-de-zhi-cheng-qu-yu-dan-btc-jia-ge-de-zhang-qi-qian-jing-yi-ran-qiang-jin\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u8dcc\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u5176\u4ef7\u683c\u56de\u843d\u81f3\u8fd9\u4e00\u5173\u952e\u7684\u652f\u6491\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u4f46 BTC \u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u957f\u671f\u524d\u666f\u4f9d\u7136\u5f3a\u52b2"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>

根据以下图表的分析，比特币 (BTC) 价格短期回调的风险似乎正在上升。<\/strong><\/p>

比特币最后易手接近 27,500 美元，比上周五触及的九个月高点 29,300 美元低了约 6%。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

本周 (3 月 20 日至 26日)，该加密货币一再地未能守住 2022 年 5 月下旬低点 28,000 美元的阻力价位，这让一些交易者担心短期内回调至 25,000 美元中段的关键支撑价位可能即将到来。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

比特币未能保持在 28,000 美元以上并非显示出短期回调风险增加的那个因素。<\/strong><\/p>

最近几天，比特币的 14 天相对强度指数 (RSI) 出现对看跌情势的背离。<\/strong><\/p>

尽管比特币价格持续上涨，但 RSI 一直在下降。一些技术人员将此视为即将到来的修正之指示。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

此外，比特币最近突破 20,000 美元，将价格动能指标推至历史的高位，显示市场可能过热。<\/strong><\/p>

本周早些时候，比特币的 200 日移动平均线 (DMA) 的 Z 值升至 3.0 以上。<\/strong><\/p>

这意味着价格比过去 200 天的平均价格高出三个标准差以上，这是一个非常罕见的事件，可能显示上涨石头正在过度扩张。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

比特币 200 日均线的 Z 值最新约为 2.5，按历史标准衡量仍然很高，也是自 2020 年初以来的最高值。<\/strong><\/p>

逢低买进的需求将保持在高位<\/strong><\/h2><\/span>

因此，短期回调的风险似乎已经上升。但比特币看涨者不应该太担心。<\/strong><\/p>

这是因为在可预见的未来，推动比特币从 3 月中旬低点 20,000 美元以下产生惊人价格反弹的基本面之因果叙述可能仍然处于有利的形势。<\/strong><\/p>

读者会记得，本月早些时候美国三家银行倒闭，引发了对更广泛的全球银行业危机的担忧，并促使交易员大幅削减对美国联准会进一步收紧政策的押注。<\/strong><\/p>

正如预期的那样，美国联准会在本周的会议上将利率指引转向鸽派（尽管仍将利率再提高 25 个基点），投资者现在押注降息的周期将在今年下半年开始。<\/strong><\/p>

对金融危机的担忧和对更宽松货币政策的押注相结合，至今已给比特币双重的顺风推动力来满足避险的需求（作为法定货币的替代品）和对在较低利率环境中表现良好的资产（比特币通常具有）的需求。<\/strong><\/p>

银行业的传染效应之风险仍然很高，美国经济前景已大幅转暗，这意味着这些上述的顺风应会继续保持强劲。<\/strong><\/p>

比特币也可能继续从积极的链上趋势中获得长期的顺风。<\/strong><\/p>

其中包括在以下各方面的一个稳定但持续的增长：每日的交易、非零余额钱包的地址数量、新地址创建率以及与区块链交互的每日活跃钱包数。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>
\"\"<\/figure>
\"\"<\/figure>

如果比特币价格回落至 25,000 美元区域，则可能会遇到激进的逢低买盘的需求。<\/strong><\/p>

长期的风险仍然倾向于在未来几周和几个月内突破 30,000 美元。<\/strong><\/p>

至少，这是来自比特币期权市场的资讯 — 在 90 天和 180 天到期的比特币期权的 25% delta 偏差仍然接近自 2021 年底以来的最高水平，当时比特币价格创下 69,000 美元以上的历史新高。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

根据以下图表的分析，比特币 (BTC) 价格短期回调的风险似乎正在上升。比特币最后易手接近 27,500 美元，比上周五触及的九个月高点 29,300 美元低了约 6%。本周 (3 月 20 日至 26日)，该加密货币一再地未能守住 2022 年 5 月下旬低点 28,000 美元的阻力价位，这让一些交易者担心短期内回调至 25,000 美元中段的关键支撑价位可能即将到来。比特币未能保持在 28,000 美元以上并非显示出短期回调风险增加的那个因素。最近几天，比特币的 14 天相对强度指数 (RSI) 出现对看跌情势的背离。尽管比特币价格持续上涨，但 RSI 一直在下降。一些技术人员将此视为即将到来的修正之指示。此外，比特币最近突破 20,000 美元，将价格动能指标推至历史的高位，显示市场可能过热。本周早些时候，比特币的 200 日移动平均线 (DMA) 的 Z 值升至 3.0 以上。这意味着价格比过去 200 天的平均价格高出三个标准差以上，这是一个非常罕见的事件，可能显示上涨石头正在过度扩张。比特币 200 日均线的 Z 值最新约为 2.5，按历史标准衡量仍然很高，也是自 2020 年初以来的最高值。逢低买进的需求将保持在高位因此，短期回调的风险似乎已经上升。但比特币看涨者不应该太担心。这是因为在可预见的未来，推动比特币从 3 月中旬低点 20,000 美元以下产生惊人价格反弹的基本面之因果叙述可能仍然处于有利的形势。读者会记得，本月早些时候美国三家银行倒闭，引发了对更广泛的全球银行业危机的担忧，并促使交易员大幅削减对美国联准会进一步收紧政策的押注。正如预期的那样，美国联准会在本周的会议上将利率指引转向鸽派（尽管仍将利率再提高 25 个基点），投资者现在押注降息的周期将在今年下半年开始。对金融危机的担忧和对更宽松货币政策的押注相结合，至今已给比特币双重的顺风推动力来满足避险的需求（作为法定货币的替代品）和对在较低利率环境中表现良好的资产（比特币通常具有）的需求。银行业的传染效应之风险仍然很高，美国经济前景已大幅转暗，这意味着这些上述的顺风应会继续保持强劲。比特币也可能继续从积极的链上趋势中获得长期的顺风。其中包括在以下各方面的一个稳定但持续的增长：每日的交易、非零余额钱包的地址数量、新地址创建率以及与区块链交互的每日活跃钱包数。如果比特币价格回落至 25,000 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[],"editors":[1767],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-104831","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news","editors-sze-lam"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u8dcc\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u5176\u4ef7\u683c\u56de\u843d\u81f3\u8fd9\u4e00\u5173\u952e\u7684\u652f\u6491\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u4f46 BTC \u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u957f\u671f\u524d\u666f\u4f9d\u7136\u5f3a\u52b2<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"根据以下图表的分析，比特币 (BTC)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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