{"id":104815,"date":"2023-03-22T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-22T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cn.cryptonews.com\/?p=108279"},"modified":"2023-06-26T11:26:42","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T11:26:42","slug":"bi-te-bi-yu-mei-guo-gu-shi-de-xiang-guan-xing-da-dao-20-ge-yue-yi-lai-de-zui-di-dian-wei-he-ci-yin-su-hui-rang-bi-te-bi-kan-zhang-de-yuan-yin-ru-xia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/bi-te-bi-yu-mei-guo-gu-shi-de-xiang-guan-xing-da-dao-20-ge-yue-yi-lai-de-zui-di-dian-wei-he-ci-yin-su-hui-rang-bi-te-bi-kan-zhang-de-yuan-yin-ru-xia\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u8fbe\u5230 20 \u4e2a\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u70b9 \u2014 \u4e3a\u4f55\u6b64\u56e0\u7d20\u4f1a\u8ba9\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u770b\u6da8\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5982\u4e0b"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>

比特币与美国股市的相关性刚刚跌至一年半多以来的最低水平。这是根据加密货币分析公司 CoinMetrics 的说法，该公司提供了一张图表，显示比特币与标准普尔 500 指数之间的 30 天皮尔逊相关性刚刚跌至 0.20 以下，这是自 2021 年 9 月以来的最低水平。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

这是与 2022 年的年中相比之一个大逆转，当时比特币和股票基本同步地波动，30 天相关性一度超过 0.7。<\/strong><\/p>

鉴于过去两周比特币价格（一直飙升）和标准普尔 500 指数（一直低迷）的差异，这种相关性可能会继续下降。<\/strong><\/p>

如果跌破 0.08，将触及三年来的最低点。<\/strong><\/p>

为什么比特币与股票的相关性正在瓦解？<\/strong><\/h2><\/span>

在 2021 年和 2022 年，比特币在很大程度上被视为一种投机科技\/资产，应该根据流动性的条件来进行交易，就像科技股一样。<\/strong><\/p>

这在很大程度上解释了为什么加密货币在 2020 年和 2021 年出现如此巨大的增长，因为美国（和全球）经济充满了财政和货币刺激的措施，然后在 2022 年随着刺激措施的撤回（主要是透过主要央行激进加息的利率）而大幅回落。<\/strong><\/p>

比特币在 2020\/21 年的暴涨和 2022 年的暴跌意味着其价格在很大程度上与美国科技股板块同步地波动。<\/strong><\/p>

但 2023 年初爆发的金融危机正在考验这种关系。<\/strong><\/p>

投资者可能最终不会将比特币视为一种投机资产（如科技股），而是开始以其创造者和支持者希望他们一直以来希望的方式来看待比特币 — 那就是把它作为以基于法定货币的中央银行部分准备金之银行系统为中心的避风港和替代品。<\/strong><\/p>

过去几周，比特币在“数位黄金”的称号上取得了不错的成绩。<\/strong><\/p>

比特币相较于早前的月度低点 20,000 美元已上涨了 40% 以上，因为投资者正在寻找替代的、“更硬”的货币\/交易媒介，这使得加密货币与黄金的价格同步上涨。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

法定货币（如美元、欧元和英镑）并不像黄金和比特币那样坚硬，因为它们的价值更容易被通货膨胀給侵蚀。<\/strong><\/p>

因此，就在美国股市一直萎靡不振之际，比特币一直受到避险买盘的追捧，投资者担心银行业目前的问题不知道会变得多严重，以及这将对经济增长前景产生多大的影响。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

这就是为什么 BTC 与股票的相关性下降是看涨比特币的信号<\/strong><\/h2><\/span>

比特币不仅仅是一些可能很快就会消失的投机性科技。<\/strong><\/p>

它是一个高度健壮、廉洁、去中心化的点对点支付系统，为现有金融系统提供了一个真实、公平和透明的替代方案。<\/strong><\/p>

投资者最终似乎将上述的相关性下降视为加密货币的看涨信号。<\/strong><\/p>

如果银行业危机恶化，股市因此下跌，这可能会进一步刺激比特币的避险收益。<\/strong><\/p>

与此同时，即使美国当局确实设法避免了危机，美国联准会进一步大幅收紧政策的前景也可能会受到致命的打击。<\/strong><\/p>

换句话说，加息周期的结束很可能就在触手可及的范围内。<\/strong><\/p>

如果未来的金融环境更加宽松（意味着美国收益率降低），这对黄金和比特币来说都是个好兆头。<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

比特币与美国股市的相关性刚刚跌至一年半多以来的最低水平。这是根据加密货币分析公司 CoinMetrics 的说法，该公司提供了一张图表，显示比特币与标准普尔 500 指数之间的 30 天皮尔逊相关性刚刚跌至 0.20 以下，这是自 2021 年 9 月以来的最低水平。这是与 2022 年的年中相比之一个大逆转，当时比特币和股票基本同步地波动，30 天相关性一度超过 0.7。鉴于过去两周比特币价格（一直飙升）和标准普尔 500 指数（一直低迷）的差异，这种相关性可能会继续下降。如果跌破 0.08，将触及三年来的最低点。为什么比特币与股票的相关性正在瓦解？在 2021 年和 2022 年，比特币在很大程度上被视为一种投机科技\/资产，应该根据流动性的条件来进行交易，就像科技股一样。这在很大程度上解释了为什么加密货币在 2020 年和 2021 年出现如此巨大的增长，因为美国（和全球）经济充满了财政和货币刺激的措施，然后在 2022 年随着刺激措施的撤回（主要是透过主要央行激进加息的利率）而大幅回落。比特币在 2020\/21 年的暴涨和 2022 年的暴跌意味着其价格在很大程度上与美国科技股板块同步地波动。但 2023 年初爆发的金融危机正在考验这种关系。投资者可能最终不会将比特币视为一种投机资产（如科技股），而是开始以其创造者和支持者希望他们一直以来希望的方式来看待比特币 — 那就是把它作为以基于法定货币的中央银行部分准备金之银行系统为中心的避风港和替代品。过去几周，比特币在“数位黄金”的称号上取得了不错的成绩。比特币相较于早前的月度低点 20,000 美元已上涨了 40% 以上，因为投资者正在寻找替代的、“更硬”的货币\/交易媒介，这使得加密货币与黄金的价格同步上涨。法定货币（如美元、欧元和英镑）并不像黄金和比特币那样坚硬，因为它们的价值更容易被通货膨胀給侵蚀。因此，就在美国股市一直萎靡不振之际，比特币一直受到避险买盘的追捧，投资者担心银行业目前的问题不知道会变得多严重，以及这将对经济增长前景产生多大的影响。这就是为什么 BTC 与股票的相关性下降是看涨比特币的信号比特币不仅仅是一些可能很快就会消失的投机性科技。它是一个高度健壮、廉洁、去中心化的点对点支付系统，为现有金融系统提供了一个真实、公平和透明的替代方案。投资者最终似乎将上述的相关性下降视为加密货币的看涨信号。如果银行业危机恶化，股市因此下跌，这可能会进一步刺激比特币的避险收益。与此同时，即使美国当局确实设法避免了危机，美国联准会进一步大幅收紧政策的前景也可能会受到致命的打击。换句话说，加息周期的结束很可能就在触手可及的范围内。如果未来的金融环境更加宽松（意味着美国收益率降低），这对黄金和比特币来说都是个好兆头。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[],"editors":[1767],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-104815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news","editors-sze-lam"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u8fbe\u5230 20 \u4e2a\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u70b9 \u2014 \u4e3a\u4f55\u6b64\u56e0\u7d20\u4f1a\u8ba9\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u770b\u6da8\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5982\u4e0b<\/title>\n<meta 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