{"id":104810,"date":"2023-03-21T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-21T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cn.cryptonews.com\/?p=108176"},"modified":"2023-06-26T11:26:42","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T11:26:42","slug":"sui-zhe-btc-jia-ge-de-fan-dan-sheng-wen-bi-te-bi-qi-quan-shi-chang-zhuan-wei-kan-zhang-jia-ge-sheng-zhi-28000-mei-yuan-yi-shang","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/sui-zhe-btc-jia-ge-de-fan-dan-sheng-wen-bi-te-bi-qi-quan-shi-chang-zhuan-wei-kan-zhang-jia-ge-sheng-zhi-28000-mei-yuan-yi-shang\/","title":{"rendered":"\u968f\u7740 BTC \u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u53cd\u5f39\u5347\u6e29\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u671f\u6743\u5e02\u573a\u8f6c\u4e3a\u770b\u6da8\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u5347\u81f3 28,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>

仅仅几天之内，投资者对比特币价格前景的看法从看跌转为看涨，这样的转变也反应在期权市场定价的一个转变。随着比特币价格自去年 6 月初以来首次飙升至 28,000 美元以上，投资者情绪发生了逆转，自早些时候的月度低点以来涨幅超过 44%。<\/strong><\/p>

年收益现在接近 70%，比特币飙升的原因是：1) 鉴于全球银行体系出现问题，对于被视为避风港的资产之需求增加，以及 2) 押注美国联准会不会进一步收紧政策的比例增加。事实上，在未来一周，联准会的政策会议将是一个关键事件，投资者对联准会是否会最后一次加息 25 个基点存在分歧的看法。<\/strong><\/p>

期权市场反转看涨<\/strong><\/h2><\/span>

当上周比特币在两个月内首次跌破 2 万美元时，根据 7、30、60、90 和 180 天到期的比特币期权的 25% delta 偏差，BTC 价格前景跌至年度历史最低水平的 -5 到 -10 之间。<\/strong><\/p>

然而，激进的价格回升使得 7、30、60、90 和 180 天到期的比特币期权的 25% delta 偏差迅速恢复到看涨区域，均接近 5。对于 7 天 25% delta 偏差，这是自 2 月中旬以来的最高水平。对于 30、60 和 90 天的偏差，这是自 1 月中旬以来的最高水平。最后，对于 180 天的偏差，这是自 2021 年 11 月以来的最高水平。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

25% 的 delta 期权偏差是一个普遍监测的指标，用于衡量交易柜台透过向投资者出售的看跌期权和看涨期权为上行或下行保护所收取的费用过高或过低的程度。看跌期权赋予投资者以预定价格出售资产的权利，但没有义务，而看涨期权赋予投资者以预定价格购买资产的权利，但也没有义务。<\/strong><\/p>

高于 0 的 25% delta 期权偏差显示交易台对同等看涨期权的收费高于看跌期权。这意味着对看涨期权的需求比对看跌期权的需求更强，这可以被解读为一个看涨信号，因为投资者更渴望获得保护以防止（或押注）价格上涨。<\/strong><\/p>

因此，比特币期权市场发出了一个讯息，即投资者正在为进一步获利做准备。这在最近的举措背景下是有道理的。<\/strong><\/p>

BTC 价格的下一步在哪里？<\/strong><\/h2><\/span>

由于比特币现在似乎已经清除了 2022 年 5 月下旬低点 28,000 美元区域的阻力，现在可以快速测试 30,000 美元的重要心理水平，然后是 2022 年 6 月初的高点 32,500 美元区域。事实上，没有多少阻力可以阻止这种反弹。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

基本面似乎可能继续支持比特币上涨。如果本周的美国联准会会议是鸽派态度的话，那么相关的风险流动和宽松的金融状况应该会支撑比特币价格。如果美国联准会不像市场希望的那样温和，这可能会导致短期价格波动，但可能会导致美国银行业进一步紧张，这也可能会增加对比特币作为避险选择的需求。<\/strong><\/p>

一直以来，链上趋势看起来都是积极的。非零余额钱包数量、每日交易数量、每日活跃地址数量和新地址创建率等核心链上指标都在朝着正确的方向发展。替代指标，例如 Glassnode 的“从比特币熊市中恢复”仪表板中追踪的指标（大部分）也闪烁着看涨的信号。<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

仅仅几天之内，投资者对比特币价格前景的看法从看跌转为看涨，这样的转变也反应在期权市场定价的一个转变。随着比特币价格自去年 6 月初以来首次飙升至 28,000 美元以上，投资者情绪发生了逆转，自早些时候的月度低点以来涨幅超过 44%。年收益现在接近 70%，比特币飙升的原因是：1) 鉴于全球银行体系出现问题，对于被视为避风港的资产之需求增加，以及 2) 押注美国联准会不会进一步收紧政策的比例增加。事实上，在未来一周，联准会的政策会议将是一个关键事件，投资者对联准会是否会最后一次加息 25 个基点存在分歧的看法。期权市场反转看涨当上周比特币在两个月内首次跌破 2 万美元时，根据 7、30、60、90 和 180 天到期的比特币期权的 25% delta 偏差，BTC 价格前景跌至年度历史最低水平的 -5 到 -10 之间。然而，激进的价格回升使得 7、30、60、90 和 180 天到期的比特币期权的 25% delta 偏差迅速恢复到看涨区域，均接近 5。对于 7 天 25% delta 偏差，这是自 2 月中旬以来的最高水平。对于 30、60 和 90 天的偏差，这是自 1 月中旬以来的最高水平。最后，对于 180 天的偏差，这是自 2021 年 11 月以来的最高水平。25% 的 delta […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[],"editors":[1767],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-104810","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news","editors-sze-lam"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u968f\u7740 BTC \u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u53cd\u5f39\u5347\u6e29\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u671f\u6743\u5e02\u573a\u8f6c\u4e3a\u770b\u6da8\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u5347\u81f3 28,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"仅仅几天之内，投资者对比特币价格前景的\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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