{"id":104764,"date":"2023-03-09T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-09T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cn.cryptonews.com\/?p=107184"},"modified":"2023-06-26T11:26:42","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T11:26:42","slug":"bi-te-bi-yu-mei-guo-gu-piao-de-xiang-guan-xing-zheng-zai-jian-ruo-wei-shen-me-zhe-dui-btc-jia-ge-lai-shuo-ke-neng-shi-yi-jian-hao-shi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/bi-te-bi-yu-mei-guo-gu-piao-de-xiang-guan-xing-zheng-zai-jian-ruo-wei-shen-me-zhe-dui-btc-jia-ge-lai-shuo-ke-neng-shi-yi-jian-hao-shi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u6b63\u5728\u51cf\u5f31 \u2014 \u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd9\u5bf9 BTC \u4ef7\u683c\u6765\u8bf4\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4ef6\u597d\u4e8b"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>

2022 年创下历史新高的比特币价格与美国股价之间的正相关性正在消退。看涨比特币的人希望这种脱钩对比特币来说是个好兆头，因为这可能意味着美国股市的持续挣扎可能不会对世界上最大的加密货币造成不利的影响。<\/strong><\/p>

根据 CoinMetrics 提供的图表，BTC 价格与标准普尔 500 指数（最受关注的美国股市基准）收盘价之间的 60 天皮尔逊相关系数本周早些时候跌至 2022 年 4 月以来的最低水平 0.30。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

该相关性在 2022 年早些时候大幅上涨后，在该年九月份上涨至 0.667 的历史新高点，原因是人们担心美国通货膨胀压力的回升强于预期以及由此产生的来自美国联准会之紧缩反应导致加密货币和股票价格的齐跌。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

这两种资产类别之间的相关性下降是在加密货币自今年初以来令人印象深刻的价格反弹之后出现的。比特币比起去年上涨了 35% 左右，而标准普尔 500 指数则上涨了 4.0%，涨幅要小得多。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

与股票的相关性降低是否意味着熊市已经结束？<\/strong><\/h2><\/span>

比特币在 2022 年下半年与美国股市的相关性升高是持续熊市的一个明显特征，到 11 月的低点，BTC 已从 2021 年的历史高点 69,000 美元下跌了 77%。<\/strong><\/p>

在此之前，比特币与标准普尔 500 指数之间的 60 天皮尔逊相关性仅在少数情况下高达 0.3，并且经常跌至零以下。在 2022 年之前的几年里，比特币与美国股市的相关性要弱得多，其特点是价格的大幅上涨。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

比特币从 2018 年的低点略高于 3,000 美元上涨至 2021 年的历史高点，涨幅超过 2,000%。看涨者希望比特币与股票之间的相关性较低，就像 2018 年末至 2021 年末期间的情况一样，最终成为即将到来之牛市的一个特征。<\/strong><\/p>

股票投资者担心美国联准会为遏制美国通货膨胀而采取的积极努力（目前美国经济表现优于预期，美国通货膨胀仍比预期更粘而难以摆脱）将导致今年晚些时候企业盈利陷入更深的衰退，进一步打击已经下跌的股票估值。而此估值已受到较高无风险利率（即较高的美国政府债券收益率）的打击。<\/strong><\/p>

这就是为什么几乎没有人押注美国股价近期会飙升至历史高位。但尽管对美国股市前景的悲观情绪持续存在，但较弱的相关性可能会让比特币在今年反弹。然而，BTC 价格从其近期超过 25,000 美元的高位回落，导致一些与比特币市场盈利能力相关的链上指标对这种全球市值最大的加密货币的前景发出了不那么乐观的信号。一些人担心比特币在不久的将来可能会回到 20,000 美元以下。<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2022 年创下历史新高的比特币价格与美国股价之间的正相关性正在消退。看涨比特币的人希望这种脱钩对比特币来说是个好兆头，因为这可能意味着美国股市的持续挣扎可能不会对世界上最大的加密货币造成不利的影响。根据 CoinMetrics 提供的图表，BTC 价格与标准普尔 500 指数（最受关注的美国股市基准）收盘价之间的 60 天皮尔逊相关系数本周早些时候跌至 2022 年 4 月以来的最低水平 0.30。该相关性在 2022 年早些时候大幅上涨后，在该年九月份上涨至 0.667 的历史新高点，原因是人们担心美国通货膨胀压力的回升强于预期以及由此产生的来自美国联准会之紧缩反应导致加密货币和股票价格的齐跌。这两种资产类别之间的相关性下降是在加密货币自今年初以来令人印象深刻的价格反弹之后出现的。比特币比起去年上涨了 35% 左右，而标准普尔 500 指数则上涨了 4.0%，涨幅要小得多。与股票的相关性降低是否意味着熊市已经结束？比特币在 2022 年下半年与美国股市的相关性升高是持续熊市的一个明显特征，到 11 月的低点，BTC 已从 2021 年的历史高点 69,000 美元下跌了 77%。在此之前，比特币与标准普尔 500 指数之间的 60 天皮尔逊相关性仅在少数情况下高达 0.3，并且经常跌至零以下。在 2022 年之前的几年里，比特币与美国股市的相关性要弱得多，其特点是价格的大幅上涨。比特币从 2018 年的低点略高于 3,000 美元上涨至 2021 年的历史高点，涨幅超过 2,000%。看涨者希望比特币与股票之间的相关性较低，就像 2018 年末至 2021 年末期间的情况一样，最终成为即将到来之牛市的一个特征。股票投资者担心美国联准会为遏制美国通货膨胀而采取的积极努力（目前美国经济表现优于预期，美国通货膨胀仍比预期更粘而难以摆脱）将导致今年晚些时候企业盈利陷入更深的衰退，进一步打击已经下跌的股票估值。而此估值已受到较高无风险利率（即较高的美国政府债券收益率）的打击。这就是为什么几乎没有人押注美国股价近期会飙升至历史高位。但尽管对美国股市前景的悲观情绪持续存在，但较弱的相关性可能会让比特币在今年反弹。然而，BTC 价格从其近期超过 25,000 美元的高位回落，导致一些与比特币市场盈利能力相关的链上指标对这种全球市值最大的加密货币的前景发出了不那么乐观的信号。一些人担心比特币在不久的将来可能会回到 20,000 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[],"editors":[1767],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-104764","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news","editors-sze-lam"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u6b63\u5728\u51cf\u5f31 \u2014 \u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd9\u5bf9 BTC \u4ef7\u683c\u6765\u8bf4\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4ef6\u597d\u4e8b<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"2022\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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