{"id":104574,"date":"2023-02-23T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-23T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cn.cryptonews.com\/?p=105728"},"modified":"2023-06-26T11:26:42","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T11:26:42","slug":"gen-ju-bi-te-bi-qi-quan-shi-chang-zhe-shi-tou-zi-zhe-mu-qian-dui-btc-jia-ge-qian-jing-de-kan-fa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/gen-ju-bi-te-bi-qi-quan-shi-chang-zhe-shi-tou-zi-zhe-mu-qian-dui-btc-jia-ge-qian-jing-de-kan-fa\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6839\u636e\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u671f\u6743\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u76ee\u524d\u5bf9 BTC \u4ef7\u683c\u524d\u666f\u7684\u770b\u6cd5"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>

比特币在过去六天中有五天试图突破并保持在 25,000 美元上方，但均以失败告终。一些技术人员认为，这不一定是坏事，因为按市值计算，全球最大的加密货币正在形成一个上升的三角形结构，可能会朝着下一个主要阻力区域 28,000 美元左右继续爆发。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

但其他人担心，今年 BTC 价格已经上涨近 50% 的涨势可能会出现停滞。比特币衍生品市场的定价是衡量投资者对比特币前景及其波动潜力的看法的一种方式。以下是期权市场目前的说法……<\/strong><\/p>

投资者对 BTC 价格前景持中立态度<\/strong><\/h2><\/span>

根据广泛关注的 7、30、60、90 和 180 天到期的比特币期权的 25% delta 偏差，投资者目前对比特币价格的前景大致持中性态度。根据加密货币分析公司 The Block 提供的数据，所有五个 25% 的 delta 偏差都接近于零，已从去年 FTX 倒闭后的低点大幅上升，但也比今年早些时候公布的高点略有下降。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

25% 的 delta 期权偏差是一个普遍监测的指标，用于衡量交易柜台透过向投资者出售的看跌期权和看涨期权为上行或下行保护所收取的费用过高或过低的程度。看跌期权赋予投资者以预定价格出售资产的权利，但没有义务，而看涨期权赋予投资者以预定价格购买资产的权利，但没有义务。<\/strong><\/p>

高于 0 的 25% delta 期权偏差显示交易柜台对同等看涨期权的收费高于看跌期权。这意味着对看涨期权的需求高于看跌期权，这可以被解读为一个看涨信号，因为投资者更渴望获得保护 (或押注) 价格上涨。<\/strong><\/p>

然而，另一个衡量投资者情绪的期权市场指标发出了更为乐观的信号。根据 The Block 提供的数据，比特币期权的未平仓合约看跌\/看涨比率最新为 0.41，仍非常接近 1 月底\/2 月初创下的历史低点。低于 1 的未平仓合约看跌期权\/看涨期权比率意味着投资者倾向于持有看涨期权 (押注价格上涨) 而不是看跌期权 (押注价格下跌)。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

投资者正在为波动性上升做准备<\/strong><\/h2><\/span>

根据 The Block 提供的数据，根据平价 (ATM) 期权市场，比特币的 7 天隐含波动率最近接近本月最高程度。周六，该比例从早些时候低于 40% 的月度低点升至略低于 60%。与此同时，30 天 ATM 隐含波动率也约为 60%，与早些时候的月度高点一致。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

根据 ATM 期权市场，波动预期的最新上升与比特币市场从早些时候 21,000 美元的月度低点复苏有着密切关系。值得注意的是，与历史比较相比，比特币 ATM 隐含波动率预期仍然低迷，远低于 2023 年 1 月中旬和 2022 年 11 月的近期高点。<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

比特币在过去六天中有五天试图突破并保持在 25,000 美元上方，但均以失败告终。一些技术人员认为，这不一定是坏事，因为按市值计算，全球最大的加密货币正在形成一个上升的三角形结构，可能会朝着下一个主要阻力区域 28,000 美元左右继续爆发。但其他人担心，今年 BTC 价格已经上涨近 50% 的涨势可能会出现停滞。比特币衍生品市场的定价是衡量投资者对比特币前景及其波动潜力的看法的一种方式。以下是期权市场目前的说法……投资者对 BTC 价格前景持中立态度根据广泛关注的 7、30、60、90 和 180 天到期的比特币期权的 25% delta 偏差，投资者目前对比特币价格的前景大致持中性态度。根据加密货币分析公司 The Block 提供的数据，所有五个 25% 的 delta 偏差都接近于零，已从去年 FTX 倒闭后的低点大幅上升，但也比今年早些时候公布的高点略有下降。25% 的 delta 期权偏差是一个普遍监测的指标，用于衡量交易柜台透过向投资者出售的看跌期权和看涨期权为上行或下行保护所收取的费用过高或过低的程度。看跌期权赋予投资者以预定价格出售资产的权利，但没有义务，而看涨期权赋予投资者以预定价格购买资产的权利，但没有义务。高于 0 的 25% delta 期权偏差显示交易柜台对同等看涨期权的收费高于看跌期权。这意味着对看涨期权的需求高于看跌期权，这可以被解读为一个看涨信号，因为投资者更渴望获得保护 (或押注) 价格上涨。然而，另一个衡量投资者情绪的期权市场指标发出了更为乐观的信号。根据 The Block 提供的数据，比特币期权的未平仓合约看跌\/看涨比率最新为 0.41，仍非常接近 1 月底\/2 月初创下的历史低点。低于 1 的未平仓合约看跌期权\/看涨期权比率意味着投资者倾向于持有看涨期权 (押注价格上涨) 而不是看跌期权 (押注价格下跌)。投资者正在为波动性上升做准备根据 The Block 提供的数据，根据平价 (ATM) 期权市场，比特币的 7 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