{"id":101618,"date":"2023-01-18T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-18T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cn.cryptonews.com\/?p=101618"},"modified":"2023-06-26T11:26:42","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T11:26:42","slug":"bi-te-bi-jia-ge-mo-xing-shan-shuo-zhe-lu-se-jie-shi-le-shen-me-xun-xi-jia-mi-huo-bi-de-dong-tian-zheng-zai-zhuan-xiang-chun-tian-ma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptonews.com\/cn\/news\/bi-te-bi-jia-ge-mo-xing-shan-shuo-zhe-lu-se-jie-shi-le-shen-me-xun-xi-jia-mi-huo-bi-de-dong-tian-zheng-zai-zhuan-xiang-chun-tian-ma\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u6a21\u578b\u95ea\u70c1\u7740\u7eff\u8272\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u8baf\u606f \u2013 \u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u51ac\u5929\u6b63\u5728\u8f6c\u5411\u6625\u5929\u5417?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>

自 2023 年初以来，比特币一直在飙升。按市值计算，世界上第一个也是最大的加密货币最近之交易价格接近 21,000 美元，本月迄今上涨了惊人的 27%。这意味着比特币有望实现自 2021 年 10 月以来最佳的单月涨幅，尽管该月还有 15 天的时间。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

鉴于最近的飙升，Alternative.me 流行的比特币恐惧和贪婪指数在周末自 2022 年 4 月以来首次脱离“恐惧”，达到 52，然后在周一回落至 45。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

最近的涨势在社群媒体上引起了比特币看衰者通常可以预见的怀疑论调，其中许多人一直将比特币最近的复苏视为“牛市的陷阱”。公平地说，逢高卖出曾是 2022 年的策略。<\/strong><\/p>

这次的价格回升可能会有所不同<\/strong><\/h2><\/span>

但 2023 年将是与 2022 年截然不同的一年。2022 年的特点是：1) 美国和欧洲等主要全球市场的通货膨胀意外地大幅上涨，以及 2) 随后美国联准会以及欧洲中央银行等机构大幅加息。最近经济数据的变化，尤其是美国的经济数据，显示 2023 年更有可能出现通货膨胀下行的意外和美国联准会的收紧政策预期将放松的一年。<\/strong><\/p>

因此，这次最新的比特币价格反弹感觉不同。一项备受关注的期权市场指标显示，自 2022 年初以来，投资者对比特币六个月表现的前景最为乐观。<\/strong><\/p>

根据加密货币衍生品数据分析公司 Amberdata 的数据，比特币的 180 天看涨期权偏斜在本周一于一年内首次恢复到正值区域。这意味着六个月后到期的看涨现金期权现在比同样到期的看跌看跌期权的成本来得更高。<\/strong><\/p>

“我们认为当前数位资产的价格反弹是一个市场的逆转，而不是一个熊市的回升， ”3iQ 的研究主管 Mark Connors 在最近给客户的一封电子邮件中做出以上表示。Connors 指出，美国联准会的政策制定者最近发表不那么强硬的评论显示，2022 年货币供应量大幅减少的情况可能即将结束。<\/strong><\/p>

这些指标显示加密货币冬天正转向春天<\/strong><\/h2><\/span>

其他广受关注的技术指标也支持加密货币冬天可能终于结束的观点。首先，比特币自 2021 年 12 月以来首次令人信服地回到其 200 天移动平均线的北部。<\/strong><\/p>

正如 2021 年 4 月未能重回 200DMA 的尝试最终成为关键的市场转折点（比特币将在 2022 年进一步下跌 67％）一样，看涨比特币的投资者希望 1 月看涨的 200DMA 之突破可能预示着一个新牛市的开始。<\/strong><\/p>

根据 Glassnode 的说法，“由于 200 天 SMA 被市场分析师广泛观察，当它被令人信服地突破时，它往往会对投资者的心理产生重大影响……它通常被认为是最低的宏观牛市\/熊市门槛价位水平”。<\/strong><\/p>

与此同时，比特币的最新涨势也使其自去年 11 月初以来首次回到其实现价格的北部，根据 Glassnode 的数据，最终价格约为 19,700 美元。这意味着普通比特币持有者现在正持有未实现的利润，并且正“处于较小程度的敏锐财务压力之下”。<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/figure>

根据 Glassnode 数据，比特币自 2021 年 12 月以来首次回到其 200DMA 和已实现价格的北部。<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

自 2023 年初以来，比特币一直在飙升。按市值计算，世界上第一个也是最大的加密货币最近之交易价格接近 21,000 美元，本月迄今上涨了惊人的 27%。这意味着比特币有望实现自 2021 年 10 月以来最佳的单月涨幅，尽管该月还有 15 天的时间。鉴于最近的飙升，Alternative.me 流行的比特币恐惧和贪婪指数在周末自 2022 年 4 月以来首次脱离“恐惧”，达到 52，然后在周一回落至 45。最近的涨势在社群媒体上引起了比特币看衰者通常可以预见的怀疑论调，其中许多人一直将比特币最近的复苏视为“牛市的陷阱”。公平地说，逢高卖出曾是 2022 年的策略。这次的价格回升可能会有所不同但 2023 年将是与 2022 年截然不同的一年。2022 年的特点是：1) 美国和欧洲等主要全球市场的通货膨胀意外地大幅上涨，以及 2) 随后美国联准会以及欧洲中央银行等机构大幅加息。最近经济数据的变化，尤其是美国的经济数据，显示 2023 年更有可能出现通货膨胀下行的意外和美国联准会的收紧政策预期将放松的一年。因此，这次最新的比特币价格反弹感觉不同。一项备受关注的期权市场指标显示，自 2022 年初以来，投资者对比特币六个月表现的前景最为乐观。根据加密货币衍生品数据分析公司 Amberdata 的数据，比特币的 180 天看涨期权偏斜在本周一于一年内首次恢复到正值区域。这意味着六个月后到期的看涨现金期权现在比同样到期的看跌看跌期权的成本来得更高。“我们认为当前数位资产的价格反弹是一个市场的逆转，而不是一个熊市的回升， ”3iQ 的研究主管 Mark Connors 在最近给客户的一封电子邮件中做出以上表示。Connors 指出，美国联准会的政策制定者最近发表不那么强硬的评论显示，2022 年货币供应量大幅减少的情况可能即将结束。这些指标显示加密货币冬天正转向春天其他广受关注的技术指标也支持加密货币冬天可能终于结束的观点。首先，比特币自 2021 年 12 月以来首次令人信服地回到其 200 天移动平均线的北部。正如 2021 年 4 月未能重回 200DMA […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[],"editors":[1767],"sponsored_companies":[],"class_list":["post-101618","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","category-bitcoin-news","editors-sze-lam"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u6a21\u578b\u95ea\u70c1\u7740\u7eff\u8272\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u8baf\u606f \u2013 \u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u51ac\u5929\u6b63\u5728\u8f6c\u5411\u6625\u5929\u5417?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"自 2023\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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